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East Asia Bank: It is expected that the performance of US stocks in the first quarter of 2025 will be good, with the S&P 500 reaching a high of 6,335 points.
Chief Investment Strategist of East Asia Bank, Li Zhenhao, stated that for the first quarter of 2025, under the expectations of the "Red Wave" and "America First" policies, the performance of US stocks is expected to be better than other regions.
Chief Investment Strategist Li Zhenhao of East Asia Bank said that for the investment market outlook in the first quarter of 2025, under the "Red Wave" and "America First" policies, the performance of US stocks is expected to outperform other regions. Based on past US stock earnings and recent price-to-earnings ratios, the expected fluctuation range of the S&P 500 index for this quarter is between 6178 and 6335 points. A comprehensive analysis indicates that the healthcare, non-essential goods, technology, materials, and industrial sectors in the US stock market are expected to perform well. Additionally, he mentioned that the bottom of the risk forecast range is around 5420 points, compared to the level above 6000 points, implying a potential downside of nearly 10%, suggesting that the index may see a rising wave after correction and investors should pay attention to risk management. Li Zhenhao pointed out that expectations of global multipolarity may lead to various international frictions, with Trump-style "America First" policies alienating allies. For example, the EU and the UK may face simultaneous tariffs from both the US and China, with China also preparing for potential trade reshuffling among all parties. He further stated that with Trump returning to the White House, corporate bonds and emerging US dollar bond markets are expected to receive support. Interest rate changes will be favorable for corporate bonds; after Trump takes office, risks in the European bond market are expected to rise, but there are still opportunities in the Asian region. The predicted range for the 10-year yield is 4.25 to 4.36%, and for the 2-year yield, it is 3.67 to 3.98%.
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