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Singapore Bank: The loose monetary policy of the Federal Reserve is coming to an end, and it is expected that there will be only one interest rate cut in the first half of the year.
Singapore bank believes that the easing cycle of the Federal Reserve is coming to an end, and it is expected that there will only be one more interest rate cut (25 basis points) in the first half of 2025, keeping the federal funds rate at 4%-4.25% until the end of 2025.
The Singaporean bank believes that the Federal Reserve's easing cycle is coming to an end, and it is expected that there will only be one more rate cut in the first half of 2025 (25 basis points), keeping the federal fund rate at 4%-4.25% until the end of 2025. Therefore, the institution remains cautious on U.S. long-term bonds, maintaining a forecast that the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds will reach 5% this year, and continues to be bullish on the U.S. dollar. Singaporean bank chief economist Maniratnam Mo stated that the U.S. employment data in December last year far exceeded expectations. Non-farm payrolls increased by 256,000, well above the market's expectation of 165,000. The unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, and average hourly wages increased by 0.3%, remaining robust. Non-farm employment data shows that the U.S. is continuing towards a "soft landing" in 2025, rather than falling into an economic recession. He expects that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December last year, which will be released this week, will show that core inflation remains at 3.3%, significantly higher than the Federal Reserve's target of 2%.
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