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Jiaxin Wealth Management: Optimistic about the outlook for US stocks in 2025, bullish on the performance of the financial and communications sectors.
Jaxin Wealth Management's financial advisor in Hong Kong, Lin Changjie, stated that he expects the overall performance of the US stock market to be good by 2025, but due to various unstable factors, he predicts that there will also be greater volatility.
Jiaxin Wealth Management's Hong Kong financial advisor Lin Changjie believes that the overall performance of the US stock market is expected to be good by 2025, but due to many unstable factors, the volatility is also expected to be high. He mentioned that, from the current situation, the market is in a relatively healthy position, with the S&P 500 index remaining above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with an average expected growth of 5.3% this year. He also believes that the financial sector will continue to benefit from the high interest rate environment, and has a positive outlook on the financial and communication sectors, while non-essential consumer goods sectors may underperform the market. The materials sector recorded negative growth in 2024, indicating weak demand for large commodities, requiring cautious investment in related sectors. Jiaxin Wealth Management's Hong Kong financial advisor Guo Mingshen pointed out that bonds will have a significant impact on the stock market performance this year, especially if inflation remains high and unstable. In the second half of 2024, the rolling one-year correlation between the S&P 500 index and the 10-year Treasury yield returned to nearly zero, which is undoubtedly good news for the stock market. If this situation continues into 2025, the market may return to a favorable position with regards to inflation. However, if inflation volatility rises again (which may become more apparent after the implementation of tariffs and labor policies), stocks may face more risks derived from bonds. Although the bank remains optimistic about the global and US market outlook for this year, investors need to be vigilant about related risks amid the overlapping effects of various policies. Guo Mingshen also believes that the current mainland and Hong Kong stock markets are relatively cheap, and policy support is expected to be a future investment theme.
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