Raymond James: Still most optimistic about the US stock market this year, focusing on AI-related software.
2025-01-16 21:01
Zhitongcaijing
Norman Villamin stated that he still has the highest confidence in the US stock market this year, but due to the excellent returns of the past two years, investors should expect lower returns this year. He recommends seeking out structural opportunities, including AI-related software.
Norman Villamin, Chief Investment Officer of UOB Bank, expressed that he is still very bullish on the US stock market this year, but after two years of exceptional returns, investors should expect lower returns this year. He recommends exploring structural opportunities, including AI-related software. Additionally, the bank continues to be optimistic about gold, forecasting the price of gold to reach $3000 per ounce this year.
Last year, the bull market in the US was mainly led by AI, but largely focused on hardware. Villamin believes that the development of AI is similar to the rise of the internet in the past, where initially there is a need for hardware upgrades, followed by the use of software. Now, the transition from hardware to software has begun, and investors need to adjust their portfolios along with the development of AI, moving from just investing in hardware devices to expanding into software and applications.
The bank predicts that Trump's immigration policy will push inflation higher, with US inflation expected to start low at 2% early this year, but rebound in the second half of the year, potentially reaching 3% by year-end. As a result, the pace and magnitude of interest rate cuts are expected to be lower than market expectations, with the Federal Reserve likely to pause rate cuts in the second half of the year.
Villamin also suggests that investors should actively manage bond risks, rather than relying solely on long-term investment-grade bonds. He recommends adopting a high-yield, short-duration strategy, or considering hedge funds for diversification.