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DWS: The possibility of continued strong growth in the US stock market in 2025 is low, and gold is expected to experience narrow fluctuations.
German asset management company DWS releases market outlook for January 2025.
German asset management company DWS has released its market outlook for January 2025. Vincenzo Vedda, Global Chief Investment Officer of DWS, stated that the S&P 500 index saw a remarkable increase of 24% in 2024, but the market rally was mainly driven by a few tech stocks, with the "Big Seven" US stocks contributing two-thirds of the gains. He mentioned that the valuation of US stocks is currently being digested after a sharp rise, and the likelihood of the stock market continuing this upward trend in 2025 is low. After an astonishing increase in 2024 (rising by 26% in USD terms), the bank expects gold prices to fluctuate within a relatively narrow range. Vedda pointed out several market signals worth noting: since October 2022, the MSCI Global Index has increased by 60%, the S&P 500 index by 70%, and stock prices have risen sharply; cash holdings have reached a new ten-year low, while US stock holdings are significantly overrepresented. Geopolitical tensions are unstable, and US tech stocks are facing multiple challenges, putting pressure on the market for potential adjustments at any time. Despite the many variables in the market, Vedda remains cautiously optimistic about the stock market outlook for 2025, mentioning the steady performance of the US economy and job market, continuous improvement in corporate profits, and a roughly stable increase in long-term government bond yields. Vedda believes that the US economy continues to show strong momentum. The newly elected President Trump's proposals to relax regulations, adjust trade policies, and implement expansionary fiscal measures are expected to provide momentum for US economic growth. In terms of inflation, US inflation is continuing to ease, but implementing large-scale tariff hikes and tightening immigration measures could slow down the pace of inflation decline. Easing regulations is expected to promote growth in US corporate profits. Due to the benefits of the US elections, the bank has upgraded its rating of the US stock market relative to the MSCI Global Index to short-term neutral. The bank is currently most optimistic about the healthcare sector, believing that it can achieve stable defensive growth at a reasonable price. By 2030, India is expected to surpass Germany and Japan, becoming one of the world's major economies alongside the US and China. Compared to other Asian countries, India has significantly lower labor costs, increased infrastructure investments, policies promoting economic growth, and the inclusion of the Indian stock market in major stock market indices, all of which collectively create a favorable capital market environment for India.
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