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Overseas Chinese Bank: It is expected that the property prices in Hong Kong will drop by 0 to 3% this year, but there is a chance that they will bottom out.
Overseas Chinese Bank publishes economic outlook for 2025.
Overseas Chinese Bank has released its economic outlook for 2025. Jiang Jing, an economist at Overseas Chinese Bank in Hong Kong, stated that the bank expects the Hong Kong dollar interest rates to gradually decrease in the upcoming quarters. The Hong Kong dollar interest rates may lag behind the US dollar interest rates in their downward trend, and the 3-month Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rates (HIBORs) are expected to fall to the range of 3.60-3.80% by mid-2025, with the most favorable interest rates in Hong Kong for the first quarter of this year expected to be lowered by 25 basis points. Regarding the US interest rate cuts, she mentioned that the bank's basic forecast is for the Federal Fund Rates to be reduced by 25 basis points in the first, second, and third quarters of 2025, totaling a decrease of 75 basis points by the end of the year to reach 3.5-3.75%. However, there may be a pause in interest rate cuts later in the year or even this month. On the topic of the Hong Kong property market, she pointed out that the residential property market had been consolidating in 2024 due to a high-interest rate environment, weak economic recovery, and increased housing supply. It is expected that property prices will fall by 0 to 3% this year, with a chance for prices to bottom out, potentially recording a decline in the first quarter before stabilizing thereafter.
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