Recently, Li Gangfeng, a special analyst for the European Natural Resources Fund, stated that the unexpected news this year is the sharp increase in the gold reserves of the COMEX futures market in the United States. A large amount of gold has been shipped from London and Asia to the United States because the price of COMEX gold is higher than the spot gold price, indicating huge demand. The market believes that the main reason is that some people are worried that Trump may impose tariffs on gold in the future, so they want to import early before the orders are implemented. There may be significant fluctuations (decline) in the global financial markets in March-April 2025, and it is recommended to gradually reduce risky assets during these months and protect profits. The price of gold may also peak in the first quarter of this year (temporarily). When Trump was elected in November last year, the price of gold in US dollars immediately fell, because the market believed that Trump's assumption of office would lead to a stronger US dollar, reduced wars, and continued growth in US stocks. However, once it fell below $2600, the bullish force strengthened, reflecting that $2600 was a good support level at that time. For example, if the gold price is $2600, a 25% tariff is equivalent to $3250; even a 10% tariff (originally aimed at oil imports from Canada) equals $2860 (at the time of writing). The fact that Trump has not imposed tariffs on gold imports today does not mean he will not in the future; today, he has only imposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico (temporarily delayed by a month), which does not rule out future tariffs on Europe. The gold-silver ratio is a market sentiment indicator. In history, the gold-silver ratio has operated at levels of approximately 16-125 times: Data source: LSEG Workspace Generally, the higher the market's fear, the higher the gold-silver ratio. For example, in 2020, the gold-silver ratio reached a historical high of over 120 times due to the global spread of COVID-19. The gold-silver ratio index was 89.9 last Friday, up 0.5% from the previous week, down 1.0% this year, and up 4.7% in 2024. In 2023, it rose by 14.0%. Silver has underperformed gold for at least two consecutive years, indicating that the market's risk concerns remain high. It is important to note that both the US dollar gold price/ North American gold mining stocks ratio and the gold-silver ratio have shown a clear trend of rebounding from lows. The financial markets have clearly entered a period of trading during an economic recession. The market currently believes that the likelihood of the Fed maintaining interest rates on January 29th is 99.5%: Image source: LSEG Workspace Furthermore, the first rate cut may occur between June and July, with a possibility of reducing rates again in December or January of next year. There are already expectations that the Fed will not cut rates or raise them starting in September this year, even though the probability is only 3.6%. Based on the validation of futures market predictions on US interest rate trends over a long period, especially expectations for the future, the predictions are generally wrong. Therefore, the author boldly predicts that the number of rate cuts in the US next year may exceed current market expectations, especially if there is a stock market crash next year. It is expected that in 2025, there will be a power struggle between Trump and the Federal Reserve, which may bring about volatility in the US dollar, theoretically benefiting the price of gold. The outstanding performance of gold in 2024 was mainly due to market concerns about geopolitical risks and, more importantly, the belief that the US was entering a rate-cutting cycle. The opportunity cost of holding gold has begun to decrease, and the US dollar has been weak and inefficient ever since Trump won the election. Therefore, the demand from global central banks and investors has been strong over the past year. Based on current technical analysis, the price of gold remains strong, and it is estimated that the first quarter may be the best performing quarter of the year. Traditionally, the second and third quarters of the year are weak quarters for gold, and there may be significant fluctuations and adjustments (declines). Recently, the price of gold in China has been recovering to higher levels compared to international prices. In a difficult global economic situation over the next four years, buying gold during periods of weakness may be a strategy to consider. This year's surprising news is the sharp increase in the gold reserves in the COMEX futures market in the United States. A large amount of gold has been shipped from London and Asia to the United States because the price of COMEX gold is higher than the spot gold price, indicating huge demand. The author predicted earlier this year that if Trump was elected, the market might give him a six-month honeymoon period, so the strong performance of US stocks and digital currencies may be maintained until around the end of April next year; while metals, unless geopolitical tensions escalate again, may have already passed their short-to-medium term peak. According to historical statistics, the average return in the first year of a US President's term is only slightly over 1%, and the first year of a presidential term is often the worst performing year of the four-year term. The biggest challenge in the next 12 to 24 months will be if the US starts cutting expenses, a significant drop in US stocks occurs, the Fed's rate cuts are not as expected, and geopolitical risks escalate. In such scenarios, the US dollar is likely to rise or maintain high levels without much doubt.