Guotai Junan: The proportion of actively managed public funds continued to decline in Q4 2024, favoring technology and Hong Kong stocks.
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2025-02-14 06:36
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Zhitongcaijing
Guotai Junan stated in the analysis of public offering active equity fund allocation in the fourth quarter of 2024 that the equity position has slightly decreased by 0.03%, and the fund's market value and shares continue to decline.
Guotai Junan stated in the analysis of the configuration of public equity fund in the fourth quarter of 2024 that the equity position has slightly decreased by 0.03%, and the market value and shares of the fund continued to decline. In addition, the allocation proportion of Hong Kong stocks in the active equity fund in Q4 of 2024 further increased to 14.27%, an increase of 2.03% from the previous quarter, reaching a historical high. The fund increased its allocation in technology and manufacturing while reducing holdings in upstream cycles, pharmaceuticals, and consumption. The proportions of technology, manufacturing, upstream, and pharmaceutical allocations increased by 2.83%, 1.42%, -2.44%, and 1.15% respectively.
Guotai Junan's main points are as follows:
The equity position has slightly decreased by 0.03%, and the market value and shares of the fund continued to decline. 1) The equity position of the active equity fund is 84.84%, a decrease of 0.03% from the previous period. 3) The market value and shares of the fund continued to decline, with the fund's market value in Q4 of 2024 at approximately 3.4 trillion, a decrease of 350 billion from the previous period; the fund shares were 3 trillion, a decrease of approximately 210 billion shares from the previous period. 4) The stock market value of the active equity fund accounts for about 3.40% of the total A-share market value, a decrease of 0.44% from the previous period. 5) The concentration of individual stocks decreased, while the concentration of industries increased, with the concentration of the top 10 individual stocks at 19.09%, a decrease of 1.00% compared to the previous period; and the concentration of the top three industries at 55.53%, an increase of 2.29% from the previous period.
Increased holdings in index component stocks, with a record high allocation in Hong Kong stocks. 1) On one hand, the allocation proportions of index component stocks such as the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 have increased, with increases of 2.85%, 2.06%, and 2.38% respectively. The allocation proportion in the ChiNext market decreased, while holdings in the ChiNext 50 component stocks increased. 2) On the other hand, growth style allocations still have a relative advantage, with an increase of 1.00% and 1.46% in value and dividend asset allocations. 3) The allocation proportion in Hong Kong stocks has been further increased to 14.27%, an increase of 2.03% from the previous period, reaching a historical high.Increased holdings in technology and manufacturing, with over-allocations in semiconductors, electronics, and consumer electronics. 1) The fund increased its allocation in technology and manufacturing while reducing holdings in upstream cycles, pharmaceuticals, and consumption. The proportions of technology, manufacturing, upstream, and pharmaceutical allocations increased by 2.83%, 1.42%, -2.44%, and 1.15% respectively. 2) In terms of industries, electronics remains the top overweight industry, and the allocation proportion in banking has also increased. 3) Compared to the CSI 300 and the CSI 500, there are over-allocations in electronics, power equipment, pharmaceuticals and biotech, food and beverage, and automobiles. In secondary industries, there are significant over-allocations in semiconductors, batteries, and consumer electronics.
Highlights of the Fund Manager's Quarterly Report in Q4 of 2024: (1) Cyclicals: Cyclically sensitive sectors may perform well under the dual drivers of valuation restoration and performance improvement, focusing on relatively undervalued high dividend cyclicals. (2) Infrastructure and Real Estate: Pay attention to the effects of policy implementation and opportunities for the reversal of some leading companies in the sector. (3) Consumption: There is a high probability of a bottoming out and recovery in the consumer sector in 2025, with a positive outlook on improving consumer demand, focusing on policy catalysis and emerging consumer industries. (4) Technology: In the technology sector, pay attention to areas involved in products to be launched by companies like Nvidia, such as optoelectronic packaging and backup power, as well as domestically produced AI chips and edge AI. (5) Financials: Benefiting from the easing of real estate risk and the leading dividends theme, high-quality banking leaders are expected to continue benefiting from the recovery of the capital markets and mergers and acquisitions. (6) New Energy and Manufacturing: Industries such as new energy vehicles, automotive components, and smart driving are expected to benefit from the gradually optimizing competitive landscape and growing overseas expectations; wind power, lithium battery, and photovoltaic sectors show signs of easing price competition. (7) Defense Industry: Focus on new domain new quality combat equipment, naval equipment, low-altitude economy, and military informatization. (8) Pharmaceuticals: The pharmaceutical industry in 2025 may present excess returns opportunities relative to the overall market, with a focus on innovative drugs and traditional Chinese medicine supported by policies.