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Hong Hao: It is highly probable that capital will start flowing back to China, and gold will continue to hit new highs.
Recently, Senior Economist at Sui Rehong said that now, the entire return expectations and capital flows are likely to change. As a result, funds are beginning to flow back, with at least four to five trillion dollars from overseas potentially flowing back into the Chinese market, which will greatly drive the appreciation of the renminbi.
Recently, the Chief Economist of Think Tank, Hong Hao, stated that the return expectations and capital flows are likely to change now, so funds are starting to flow back, with at least four to five trillion US dollars from overseas flowing back into the Chinese market, which will greatly promote the appreciation of the RMB. He believes that gold will continue to reach new highs. This is mainly because when the Fed cuts interest rates, the cost of holding gold decreases, as holding gold does not yield interest, while holding US Treasury bonds does yield interest. Hong Hao pointed out that the appreciation of the RMB is good for Hong Kong stocks, as Hong Kong stocks are denominated in US dollars as RMB assets. In this current market trend, Hong Kong stocks are performing slightly better than A-shares. Due to low valuations and the change in RMB expectations, technology stocks are experiencing a stronger rebound. The real estate sector is also getting a boost from rumors of mortgage rate reductions. In fact, some of the major bank stocks in A-shares show a clear technical triple top pattern. So, based on technical and fundamental news, everyone is profit-taking in the banking sector. After all, the banking sector has already risen so much. Hong Hao believes that people should not be too pessimistic about A-shares. The market breadth has actually improved, not worsened. If the breadth expands, small and medium-sized stocks as well as the ChiNext board are able to rise slightly. Although the overall index may not look so good, it is believed that for the majority of investors, the probability of making profits by buying stocks is increasing, because the proportion of rising stocks is increasing and the chances of winning are growing, not decreasing. Regarding gold, the previous investment logic for gold was mainly triggered by the lack of purchasing power of sovereign currencies and distrust of the existing US dollar credit system. Now, while the logic of sovereign debt and currency purchasing power still exists, the opportunity cost is decreasing. Therefore, Hong Hao believes that gold will continue to reach new highs. He stated that the volatility in the world is increasing, and as a result, there is a lack of safe assets. The supply of safe assets is far less than the demand, not just for US Treasury bonds. Therefore, Chinese government bonds have the potential to become a globally recognized safe asset. This is not only because the macro trends are very clear, but also because the credit rating of the Chinese government is underestimated, especially for international investors who are unlikely to default. Therefore, in the new landscape, Chinese government bonds can also become an attractive safe asset for global investors. If people continue to buy, the yield on government bonds will continue to fall.
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