Puris: The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 50 basis points this week.

2024-09-17 19:51

Zhitongcaijing
Pullease chief US economist Blerina Uruci published her forward-looking comments on this week's Federal Reserve interest rate meeting. It is expected that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will cut interest rates by 50 basis points at the September meeting, which is a difficult decision.
Preliminary comments on this week's Federal Reserve interest rate meeting were made by Blerina Uruci, Chief U.S. Economist at PwC. It is expected that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will cut interest rates by 50 basis points at the September meeting, which is a difficult decision.
With the Federal Reserve set to announce its interest rate decision soon, there is unusually high uncertainty about the extent of monetary easing. This level of uncertainty contradicts Chairman Powell's earlier statements, where he indicated that the timing and magnitude of the first rate cut in this cycle are significant, suggesting that the Fed will clearly communicate about the first rate cut.
Furthermore, Powell's remarks before and after the global central bank meeting conveyed that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points at each meeting this year to address recent cooling of the labor market and slowdown in inflation. The FOMC did not communicate a 50 basis point rate cut before the quiet period, causing concern among investors about how the FOMC will interpret labor market data and their response to further increases in the unemployment rate.
Over the next 12 months, the Fed may cut rates by about 125 to 150 basis points, while market pricing reflects a 250 basis point rate cut. Moreover, if the Fed takes quick policy actions and financial conditions further loosen after the September meeting, this will provide further support to the economy, preventing a slowdown period.