Anben: The US policy interest rate has been readjusted, and the loose environment is beneficial for technology and healthcare stocks.

2024-09-20 11:27

Zhitongcaijing
Ray Sharma-Ong, Managing Director of the Southeast Asia Multi-Asset Investment Program at AMb, stated that the Fed's 50 basis point rate cut this time is positioned as a re-adjustment of the policy rate, rather than concerns about the health of the labor market.
Ray Sharma-Ong, Director of Multi-Asset Investment Solutions for Southeast Asia at Ambit, said that the Fed's 50 basis point rate cut was positioned as a recalibration of policy rates rather than a concern about the health of the labor market. The median dot plot of interest rates shows that Fed members expect a total cut of 100 basis points over this year and the next, indicating that the Fed will take a more restrained path compared to more dovish central banks.
The market is currently repricing based on the Fed's recalibration guidance. However, the current risks lean towards a more accommodative policy, and the pace of normalization of Fed rates may be faster than what the dot plot median suggests. Between now and the next FOMC meeting in November, if the next two employment reports show continued weakness in the labor market, the market may push for another 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed. In this context, a positive view on Duration is held because two driving factors support the decline in rates, including Fed rate cuts and weak economic data prompting the Fed to further accelerate rate cuts.
In terms of equities, it is expected that industries with longer durations (such as global and Asian information technology and healthcare) and assets benefiting from rate cuts (such as Korea, China Taiwan, India, and Asian real estate investment trusts) will benefit from the accommodative rate environment. On the other hand, industries with shorter durations, such as commodities and banks, are expected to lag behind the broader market.
However, careful consideration is needed in selecting the types of risks to be involved in investment. With less than two months until the US presidential election, polls predict a widening lead for presidential candidate Hillary Clinton over Trump. Based on her proposed corporate tax policies, any market pricing of her potential victory could drag down the market.