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Schroder Investment: Positive view on US economy's opportunity for a soft landing and positive outlook on stock market, bullish on four major long-term investment themes.
Investors can consider expanding their investment asset categories beyond traditional bonds, such as securitized credit, which is currently a preferred asset.
Schroders' Global Head of Diversified Asset Allocation Investments, Shu Kang, pointed out that based on the prediction of a higher likelihood of an economic "soft landing" in the United States, there is a positive outlook for the overall stock market. However, with market volatility, a more balanced investment strategy that combines growth and income is more appropriate. Given the narrowing profit growth gap between U.S. tech stocks and other sectors, the view on overvalued U.S. tech stocks is more neutral, and sectors with more attractive valuations in the market are worth investors' attention. In terms of investment themes, Schroders continues to favor four major long-term investment themes: technology transformation, energy evolution, connected consumer, and transitioning societies. Regarding the technology transformation theme, the long-term growth potential in areas such as digitization, cloud computing, robotics, and cybersecurity remains favorable. Additionally, the connected consumer theme includes companies related to e-commerce, logistics, data centers, and fintech, while the transitioning societies theme involves healthcare innovation, urbanization, and smart cities. As for cyclical investment themes, themes such as the resurgence of commodity demand and companies with pricing power in inflationary environments are currently favored. Schroders' global investment mentioned that global stock markets experienced severe volatility in August, but these fluctuations turned out to be false alarms, leading to subsequent rebounds. The Nikkei 225 index in Japan experienced its largest single-day decline, followed by a significant rebound; similar situations were observed in U.S. stocks. Slower U.S. employment and manufacturing data initially dampened market sentiment, but with retail sales data exceeding market expectations, U.S. stocks resumed their upward trend. Short-term sharp market fluctuations are not uncommon, and investors can adopt a diversified investment strategy to navigate market volatility in a more flexible manner, mitigating the impact on investment portfolios. Diversifying investments in stocks, bonds, and different asset classes, along with a mixed allocation of long-term structural and cyclical investment themes, helps to deal with different market conditions. With the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 0.5% in September as expected, concerns arose in the market about the possibility of a U.S. economic recession. The rise in U.S. Treasury prices also reflects market concerns about economic weakness. Despite recent market volatility, a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy remains the baseline prediction. The recent weakness in U.S. employment data is attributable to factors such as labor force expansion and weather conditions. Overall, as long as inflation continues to move in the right direction and decline, providing enough flexibility for the Fed to prevent an economic downturn. In terms of bonds, Schroders' global investment states that as inflation remains under control, the role of bonds in hedging against recession risks will continue to increase within investment portfolios. At the same time, as the yield curve gradually flattens, government bonds are regaining their attractiveness as a diversified risk. Based on these factors, there is an optimistic view of the bond market. Apart from U.S. bonds, the expectation of further interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank has stimulated demand for bonds issued by interest rate-sensitive industries. Meanwhile, investors can consider broadening their investment asset classes beyond traditional bonds, with securitized credit being one of the preferred assets at the moment. Compared to investment-grade U.S. bonds, securitized credit can increase the overall portfolio yield and credit quality while reducing duration risk.
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