UBS: Investors are optimistic about Hong Kong-listed companies, with the internet industry being the top choice.

2024-10-21 11:49

Zhitongcaijing
Wang Zonghao said that some onshore investors' sentiment towards China seems to have turned significantly optimistic, as they generally agree that there are more structural investment opportunities in Hong Kong-listed companies.
UBS Investment Bank's China stock strategy research director Wang Zonghao said that some onshore investors' sentiment towards China seems to have turned significantly optimistic. They generally believe that there are more structural investment opportunities among Hong Kong-listed companies, with the internet industry being the top choice. This is mainly due to their buyback plans, stable competitive environment, and strong profit growth. However, despite the improvement in optimistic sentiment, many investors seem to agree with UBS's dumbbell strategy, which is to hold high-dividend stocks (especially large state-owned banks) and some high-beta industries.
There is a deepening divergence in consumer stocks, with some investors choosing companies with greater policy support, such as white goods, while others prefer non-essential consumer goods that are less likely to be affected by deflation.
Wang Zonghao stated that recent exchanges with onshore investors in China showed that although most people had a pessimistic outlook in the past 12 months, the sentiment of some investors seems to have turned significantly optimistic. This is mainly due to the apparent shift in the government's economic agenda and the urgency of policy support implementation. They are more concerned about when and how the economy will change, rather than if it can be reversed. If policy support fails to materialize as scheduled, this optimism may gradually fade.
He pointed out that investors' attention to China is increasing, and if some key economic indicators (especially nominal social zero) stabilize, some long investors may return to the Chinese market. Due to the short-term nature of the current inflow of funds, stock market volatility may increase. Investors believe that the next quarter is a key time to track the government's follow-up policies, especially the next National People's Congress Standing Committee meeting, which they currently expect to be held in November (rather than October).
In conversations with foreign investors, it was revealed that the participation of long investors in this rebound is still quite limited, as the measures taken so far have not convinced many investors, who believe that the economy is still in a downward trend. For some investors participating in this rebound, they may have significantly underweighted China before and are concerned that they may see a liquidity-driven rebound similar to that of 2015.