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Schroder Investments: The outlook for the stock market remains relatively constructive under the influence of multiple factors.
Schroder's Investment believes that despite recent market volatility, the future prospects of the stock market remain relatively constructive. Although valuations are high, strong earnings support, and recent interest rate cuts should provide further support.
Schroders global investment commentary states that despite recent market volatility, the prospects for the stock market remain relatively constructive. Although valuations are high, strong earnings support and recent rate cuts should provide further support. However, geopolitical risks remain an unpredictable variable. The firm states that we are currently in a favorable period where long-term trends - aging populations, wealthier societies, and favorable changes in interest rate cycles - indicate a positive development phase for the biotechnology industry. Similarly, the real estate industry is shifting from headwinds to potential tailwinds. The industry is still undervalued, but active M&A activity indicates that there is significant value waiting to be unlocked. Schroders global points out that the recent 50 basis points rate cut by the Federal Reserve has created a more favorable environment for the stock market. Although the magnitude of the rate cut was larger than expected, it reflects easing inflation and cooling labor markets. Historically, periods of low inflation (1-3%) coupled with declining interest rates have been favorable for the stock market. Despite high market valuations, many investors remain optimistic about the outlook for stocks. The biotechnology industry particularly benefits from rate cuts. The industry has a strong inverse correlation with rising interest rates, meaning that when rates rise, biotech often underperforms the broader market, but performs well when rates fall. With interest rates currently trending downward, the industry is poised for further growth. It is currently experiencing robust growth in innovative technologies, rising demand for healthcare products and services, and active M&A activity. At the same time, this rate cut marks a turning point for the real estate industry after a challenging period in 2022. The industry has experienced its largest decline since the global financial crisis. However, urbanization continues to drive long-term demand for real estate, including data centers, nursing homes, and residential properties. Despite the temporary impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in recent years on lifestyle, the trend of people moving to urban areas with concentrated expertise and recreational facilities remains strong. The firm points out that by 2024, Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology will continue to dominate the investment market. A few technology companies, especially those closely related to the development of AI, are driving significant returns in the market. In fact, over half of the S&P 500 index's returns in the first half of the year came from just five companies directly related to AI. Schroders global is optimistic about the prospects for AI. Furthermore, Schroders global states that the upcoming US presidential election is another important factor that could impact financial markets. When Trump was elected in 2016, the market experienced a significant short-term uptick, particularly in industries expected to benefit from his protectionist policies, known as the "Trump effect." However, if he is re-elected, the market is unlikely to see this effect again. Regardless of which candidate wins, monetary policy is likely to play a dominant role, as both candidates have limited room to maneuver in terms of policy.
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