HSBC Global: Bullish on sustainability of Hong Kong's current real estate market recovery; expects Hong Kong property prices to rise by 5% next year.
2024-10-29 21:47
Zhitongcaijing
HSBC Global expects that Hong Kong property prices will stabilize in the second half of this year, with prices rising by 5% next year, reversing the downward trend seen since 2022.
The Hong Kong government continues to relax its property market control measures. HSBC Global Research indicates that local buyers and investors in Hong Kong with property purchasing needs are gradually returning to the Hong Kong real estate market, driving up the cost of the market in October. The recent launch of new properties has also seen strong sales trends, compared to the "mini spring" in April. It is believed that this round of recovery in the Hong Kong property market is sustainable. HSBC Global Research predicts that property prices in Hong Kong will stabilize in the second half of this year, with a 5% increase next year, reversing the downward trend since 2022.
HSBC Global points out that property developers are currently under pressure from a large amount of completed inventory, so they are focusing on asset turnover. Although the situation is concerning, positive factors such as the interest rate cut cycle and expected wealth effects have largely alleviated the related issues, and market sentiment is gradually improving. On the bright side, some property developers such as Kerry Properties (00683) and Henderson Land (00012) have recently started to raise prices. The bank's profit forecast for Hong Kong property stocks from 2025 to 2026 is 6.6% to 7.2% higher than market consensus.
HSBC Global believes that Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po has emphasized the government's intention to restore the health of the Hong Kong property market and continue to focus on land development. This indicates a lower policy risk for the real estate industry, coupled with a series of supportive measures recently announced by the Hong Kong government, including relaxing loan-to-value ratios. Therefore, even in the face of challenges in the market, it will gradually help restore the confidence of property buyers, and it is expected that the Hong Kong property market will remain stable.
HSBC Global reports that in the past three weeks, property prices have shown a moderate increase, and it believes that the rise in property prices in Hong Kong can drive positive returns. New World Development (00016) will be one of the main beneficiaries of the recovery in the Hong Kong property market, while Kerry Properties is expected to deliver continued growth due to promising prospects in luxury properties. Sun Hung Kai Properties (01113) will also help deliver surprising incomes and dividends to investors, hence the "buy" rating for these three Hong Kong property stocks.