Bar Ling Fang Weichang: Multiple positive factors support the Hong Kong stock market, and earnings growth is imminent.
2024-11-04 16:49
Zhitongcaijing
Given that these policies may take some time to truly permeate the economic fundamentals, and that business fundamentals may still face negative factors in the coming months, it is expected that corporate earnings growth is unlikely to rebound until next year (2025).
In October, Fang Weichang, director of the Hegemon Ling Stock Team, published an article stating that the Chinese government has introduced targeted policy support measures, coupled with the Fed beginning to enter an interest rate cut cycle, bringing support for the prospects of Hong Kong A shares. However, there are still some uncertainties in the local and global markets. For example, policy penetration still takes time, and companies may still face negative factors in the coming months; in addition, geopolitical uncertainties persist and short-term market volatility may continue.
Currently, there are several themes affecting the prospects of Hong Kong A shares. First, the Chinese government seems to have decided to increase policy support, and the market is closely watching how the stimulus measures in the coming months will affect the economic fundamentals. China is currently implementing consistent and targeted economic stimulus measures to boost investor sentiment. Given the current low base and low valuation of the market, it is also expected to support future earnings growth.
The Fed has entered an interest rate cut cycle, which is beneficial for emerging market stocks (including China). Other central banks (including the People's Bank of China) can also introduce monetary policies to support their domestic economies. At the same time, the labor markets in the US and Europe remain robust, which is expected to sustain demand for Chinese export goods.
The overall environment is positive, but risks should also be considered.
On the Chinese side, a distinct feature of this round of policy support is that the stimulus measures are focused on key areas of economic concern, including lowering existing mortgage rates, providing subsidies for replacement demand, and creating securities, funds, and insurance companies to swap convenience to support eligible securities, funds, and insurance companies to obtain liquidity from the central bank, increasing institutional funding capabilities and stock holding capabilities. These measures aim to stimulate investment and consumption, which are key issues in revitalizing the Chinese economy. However, since these policies may take some time to truly penetrate the economic fundamentals, and companies may still face negative factors in the coming months, it is expected that corporate earnings growth will not rebound until next year (2025). Companies directly benefiting from these policies (especially consumer and real estate companies) are expected to perform well.
Although the overall environment is favorable, there are still some negative factors. Among the recent policies introduced by the Chinese government, the most specific measures mainly focus on solving liquidity issues in terms of monetary policy. Despite the Chinese government hinting at a major fiscal plan to issue special bonds for financing, specific details have not been announced; any unfavorable news could still unsettle the market atmosphere. In terms of external factors, due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, risks remain, including the US election, the EU's imposition of tariffs on China, conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, indicating that short-term market volatility may continue. However, as the Chinese government implements overall stimulus measures, Hegemon Ling believes that if the stock market pulls back in the short term, it is a good opportunity to reassess buying Hong Kong A shares.
Attractive valuation remains
As the economy gradually normalizes, Hegemon Ling looks for attractive evaluations and structurally strong growth opportunities from a "bottom-up" perspective, which are expected to perform well in the coming months. Structural trends such as sustainable growth, supply chain self-sufficiency, technological innovation, and environmental awareness will continue to emerge. This will benefit industries such as new infrastructure construction, domestic consumption, health care, technological localization, and sustainable development.