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Fidelity International: Prefers US stocks, maintains a watchful stance on European and Japanese stocks.
According to Fidelity International, it is expected that the performance of high-yield assets in Asia will improve due to the tightening of credit spreads and the decline in US Treasury yields.
Fidelity International Investment Strategy Director Jian Liheng stated that the global easing cycle of major central banks will drive market sentiment. From a diversified asset perspective, it is expected that this will benefit risky assets, and stock investments are expected to benefit as well. In terms of geographical distribution, Fidelity prefers US stocks, as the Federal Reserve has shifted its focus from suppressing inflation to monitoring the downward trend in the job market and releasing dovish signals to timely support the economy. Currently, the US job and consumer markets remain strong, but the uncertainty of growth prospects is keeping investors cautious, and Fidelity also prefers high-quality corporate stocks. On the other hand, he mentioned that Fidelity maintains a wait-and-see attitude towards European stocks and Japanese stocks. Data shows that the economic outlook in the Eurozone is soft, especially in Germany and France, reflecting the importance of further easing measures to boost economic activity. In light of this, Fidelity is closely monitoring the transmission of monetary policy and the impact of the recovery of the Chinese mainland economy on the European economy. As for Japan, the local wage inflation cycle is driving consumer demand and giving the Bank of Japan more room to raise interest rates. Japans economy is facing a dilemma of domestic structural re-inflation and weak external growth, with the Bank of Japan's hawkish stance contradicting the loose trend of global central banks, which will bring upward pressure on the yen and downward pressure on the Japanese stock market. In other regions of Asia, ASEAN markets benefit from the Fed's easing cycle and the weakening of the US dollar, which eases the pressure on local currencies and allows for local easing cycles. ASEAN markets are also benefiting from fund rotation, with flows into the local market from tech-heavy South Korea and Taiwan. In addition, the valuation of Indian stocks is gradually rising, and investors are advised to selectively deploy funds. Fidelity International's Asian fixed income investment director, Chen Yongshi, stated that over the next six months, Asian fixed income investments will face various factors such as macroeconomic factors, policy shifts, and market sentiment trends that will mutually influence each other. The Fed's easing cycle undoubtedly prepares various Asian markets to start monetary easing policies. Some markets like Indonesia and the Philippines have already cut interest rates, and it is expected that other Asian central banks will follow suit. The lower interest rate environment will benefit bond prices and, in turn, benefit overall fixed income investments. Asian investment-grade credit continues to show solid fundamentals, low leverage, and healthy liquidity. The resilience of Asian investment-grade companies, especially in the face of global economic uncertainty, helps provide stability to investors' portfolios. Fidelity International expects credit spreads to remain volatile, providing attractive yield opportunities. With the impact of tightening credit spreads and declining US Treasury yields, the performance of Asian high-yield assets is expected to be positive. The fundamentals of Asian high-yield companies still have support, with low expected default rates. Given the current environment, Fidelity recommends that investors pay more attention to high-quality bonds and selectively allocate high-yield bond opportunities. Invest in investment-grade bonds and high-yield bonds to build a diversified investment portfolio, which helps manage risks while capturing profit opportunities. Additionally, investors should pay attention to policy developments and macroeconomic data over the next six months in order to respond to market trends.
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