After Trump won the election, many economists have revised their expectations for future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Blerina Urui, Chief U.S. Economist at T. Rowe Price, pointed out that the Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points at its December meeting, followed by two more cuts of 25 basis points each next year, with a possible pause in rate cuts afterwards, bringing the upper limit of the federal funds rate to 4%. Urui said, "While the market's reflection of monetary policy seems somewhat reasonable, I believe that long-term interest rates may continue to rise due to increasing inflation and fiscal risk premiums. It is especially important in an environment where the Federal Reserve can only moderately and belatedly respond to the ongoing risk of high fiscal deficits." After the Fed's rate cut last week, the latest rate is now between 4.5% and 4.75%. According to interest rate futures, the market currently believes there is a 35% chance the Fed will not cut rates in December, with a 65% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut. Urui noted that she will pay special attention to how the Fed will address the uncertain factors of fiscal policy and tariffs during President Trump's term. Powell described a model-based approach, where the committee sees fiscal/tariff proposals as one of the many factors affecting the economy before policy implementation. She believes Powell downplayed the impact of Trump's policy changes on the Fed's dual mandate of price stability and full employment. She stated that given the recent loose fiscal policy leading to sharp inflation, if the Fed adopts Powell's outlined approach, they may lag behind the situation in addressing inflation, ultimately leading to overly loose policy. If inflation falls to target levels due to productivity gains, the loose rate environment could potentially support economic growth and risk assets. Urui believes the Fed will closely monitor the uptrend in the 10-year Treasury bond yield. So far, the rise in long-term interest rates on U.S. Treasury bonds has mainly been attributed to higher growth expectations rather than inflation uncertainty. She believes the Fed will interpret higher interest rates as unfavorable for full employment, therefore leaning towards a dovish stance and maintaining the inclination to lower rates to a neutral level. Urui believes that Trump will personally select the Fed chair nominee in May 2026, and may lean dovish, which could be another factor leading to investors requiring higher risk premiums when holding U.S. Treasuries.