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UBS: Policy boost to consumer confidence, consumer goods sector valuation expected to rebound
UBS Head of Consumer Goods Research for Greater China, Peng Yanyan, expressed a relatively optimistic attitude towards the consumer goods industry in China.
At a media briefing on November 12, Peng Yanyan, the head of consumer goods research for UBS Greater China, stated that due to the strong support of central policies for the consumer sector and the industry recovery signals reflected in social retail data, confidence in the Chinese consumer goods industry is increasing, and there is a relatively optimistic outlook for the industry. In terms of specific sectors, she believes that the consumer goods sector listed on the Hong Kong stock market is a good choice as these companies are trading at a significant discount compared to historical levels and many of them are high-dividend companies, which amplifies their valuation advantage under policy support. In addition, the home appliance sector is also optimistic, especially with the sustainability of the "trade-in old for new" policy, which is expected to have a positive impact on the industry in the next two years. Peng Yanyan stated that since August, there have been direct measures to support the consumer sector, particularly the "trade-in old for new" policy for home appliances. It is estimated that out of the 300 billion yuan policy announced, 30-60 billion yuan is directly related to home appliances. In addition to this, local governments have also introduced subsidy policies for the home appliance industry. Additionally, during the "Double 11" period, there have been corresponding subsidies for the home furnishings industry, providing direct support to the consumer goods industry. Furthermore, during the National Day holiday in October, the growth trend of total social retail sales (Sociol retail) showed a significant improvement compared to September. Peng Yanyan believes that the strong performance of the home appliance and catering industries is the main reason for this improvement. For example, in Shanghai, a consumption voucher policy for the catering and consumer goods industries was introduced at the end of September, effectively stimulating consumption growth. The implementation of multiple stimulus policies not only promoted the recovery of the catering industry but also drove growth in the entire consumer goods industry. Regarding exports, Peng Yanyan mentioned that this year, the growth of the home appliance industry mainly comes from non-US countries, with traditional markets such as Europe and America gradually being replaced by Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America, becoming new drivers of export growth for home appliance companies. These emerging markets are expected to maintain growth momentum for a longer period due to economic growth and the increasing market share of Chinese brands. Additionally, Peng Yanyan also discussed the destocking situation of essential consumer goods channels. She stated that in the second and third quarters of this year, industries such as dairy and beer conducted large-scale destocking, leading to a significant reduction in enterprise inventory by the end of the third quarter. According to UBS research, entering the fourth quarter, these companies are showing improvements in income and profits compared to the previous quarter, mainly benefiting from the positive effects of destocking in channels.
Association of Private Equity Funds: In October, the number of newly registered private equity funds was 587, with a total registered capital of 22.946 billion yuan.
Fidelity: The US dollar is likely to continue to be supported based on trade-related factors.