Sino-Canada Fund: A-share market back to volatility, time to increase allocation to dividend stocks.
2024-11-19 16:24
Zhitongcaijing
The Sino-Canadian Fund indicates that the characteristics of market instability will continue in the future. In terms of industry, for defensive dividend-oriented industries, it is recommended to increase the allocation proportion appropriately in the short term. It is a good time to increase the allocation of dividend stocks when the market returns to volatility.
The Sino-Canada Fund released a weekly review of A shares, stating that market sentiment decreased last week. From a fundamental perspective, domestic demand is still weak, while policy expectations have once again risen. From a fund perspective, Northbound data is now published quarterly. Other factors such as new funds, margin financing, and ETF data all showed a week-on-week decrease, especially margin financing data which decreased for the first time on a weekly basis since October, indicating a possible change in market sentiment. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the future. In terms of industries, it is suggested to increase the allocation of defensive dividend-oriented industries in the short term. It is a good time to increase allocation to dividend-oriented stocks as the market returns to volatility.
Last week, the market experienced further adjustments due to the evolving situation with the Trump administration and trading-related factors, causing active and institutional funds to pull in different directions. Market hotspots are rotating quickly and the volatile market situation continues (with diminishing trading volume, observing if the volume around 1.5 trillion can stabilize). The Sino-Canada Fund suggests taking a longer-term perspective on policy expectations, as uncertainty in international politics and economics has increased since Trump took office, and there is fiscal room for maneuver. Therefore, it might be more reasonable to wait for policy changes related to the United States.
It is currently recommended to observe the market's bottoming situation and policy expectations, maintain a certain position for portfolio replenishment and rebalancing, and increase allocation towards catalytic directions in case of panic-induced downturns. The Sino-Canada Fund suggests short-term allocation to thematic related stocks such as bond management and undervalued market value management in the construction real estate chain, banks, and utility dividend targets (short-term trades are most likely to have a high success rate, while observing the repair of the balance sheet and cash flow statement of undervalued companies in the medium to long term will determine whether a true revaluation of valuation is possible).
For aggressive targets, focus on low positions, good certainty, and strong sentiment. The Sino-Canada Fund believes that the relaxation of regulatory controls may spur a new small-cap growth market, which should be closely monitored. Focus on A-share technology (highest certainty catalyst, relatively less affected by policy changes, continuous emergence of thematic opportunities, and possibility of layout after declines with emphasis on companies with fundamental support and high probability of subsequent catalysts, adjust short-term positions in Tesla, Huawei, low orbit and controllable autonomous direction, cyclical resilient targets increase allocation if the short-term adjustment range is significant. Compared to sectors like technology, real estate, consumer, and lower odds of bond themes according to the wind bias ratio allocation) advanced manufacturing and pharmaceuticals (look for industries like new energy that benefit from reduced supply pressure, approaching the turning point of the business cycle, and observe if the Trump administration will bring oversold opportunities).