UBS Wealth Management: The Hong Kong property market is still dominated by Mainland China and global economic performance.
2024-11-27 15:24
Zhitongcaijing
UBS Wealth Management investment manager Li Zhiying stated at a press conference that the Hong Kong property market has always been influenced by mainland China and global economic performance.
At a press conference, Li Zhiying, an investment manager at UBS Wealth Management, said that since the cooling measures were lifted in the Hong Kong property market, and Hong Kong banks followed the Federal Reserve in cutting interest rates, new immigrant buyers have entered the market and driven related transactions. However, this phenomenon is only limited to individual cases, and the Hong Kong property market is still largely influenced by the performance of the mainland and global economies.
Li Zhiying pointed out that the global and mainland economies still depend on the actual situation of the US imposing tariffs, and if the US president-elect Trump increases tariffs on China by 60%, Sino-US trade relations will deteriorate. The mainland economy also needs further support from the government, so Li does not expect a very optimistic situation in the Hong Kong property market. Unless there are significant fluctuations in external market conditions, transaction volumes are expected to improve and property prices to remain stable.
She mentioned that UBS expects the US to cut interest rates by 0.25% in December this year and 4 times next year by 0.25% each time. Due to the fact that the Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the US dollar, Hong Kong interest rates will follow the US interest rate trend. However, even in a high-interest rate environment in the past, property prices have continued to rise. Therefore, even if interest rates are reduced in the future, property prices may not necessarily decrease.
Li Zhiying also mentioned that demand for Grade A office space in Hong Kong continues to be under pressure, and since the outbreak of the pandemic, the work-from-home trend has meant that companies do not necessarily need to significantly increase office space even if they expand their operations.