Gao Li: It is expected that residential prices in Hong Kong will stabilize next year.
2024-12-05 20:28
Zhitongcaijing
Despite the challenging market environment, several transactions in Hong Kong have shown developers' continued interest in strategic land investments.
Li Wanyin, Director of Research Department at Colliers Hong Kong, summarized, "This year's performance in Hong Kong land sales highlights the importance of flexibility and strategic planning. With the support of policy adjustments and market restructuring, residential building prices in Hong Kong are expected to stabilize by 2025. The key to ensuring a stable development in the residential supply market will be actively promoting infrastructure development, streamlining related processes, and providing developers with more targeted incentives."
Looking back at the records of the 2024/2025 Hong Kong land sales plan, Colliers pointed out that this year has been a year of strategic restructuring for the Hong Kong government and stakeholders in a complex market environment. Of the eight pieces of land launched in the government's 2024/2025 land sales plan, four have been successfully sold, while three are still under tender.
Despite the challenging market environment, several transactions in Hong Kong have shown developers' continued interest in strategic land investments. This includes two residential plots in Sha Tin: the land at Yuen Shun Wai Road was sold for HK$619 million, while the land on Sha Tin Wai Road was sold for HK$1.02 billion.
Li Wanyin stated, "As of the end of October, the total land revenue for the 2024/2025 financial year is HK$3.7 billion, only 11.2% of the government's target revenue of HK$33 billion for this fiscal year. This target represents only 5.2% of the government's total revenue target, significantly lower than the average of around 20% before the pandemic and social events. Additionally, this year's land revenue is 81% lower than the total of HK$19.58 billion in the previous fiscal year, reflecting the various challenges faced in adjusting land sales strategies in the current market environment."
Zhou Ruoyu, Director of Valuation and Consulting Services at Colliers, commented, "There was a project that went unsold this year, which was a residential land in Chai Wan launched by the government under the 'Pilot Scheme for the Sale of New Flats'. Developers generally cited restrictive conditions, high construction costs, and limited profit margins as the main reasons for the lack of successful bids."
Regarding the residential market in Hong Kong, Li Wanyin commented, "Due to the overhang of over 21,000 'unsold' units by developers, the residential market is still under pressure. Although the government's talent and investment attraction programs have driven some demand, the uncertainty in the global market trends still affects buyer confidence."
As for the industrial market in Hong Kong, Zhou Ruoyu stated, "Logistics development remains a focus in the industrial market. Despite weak market sentiment and competition from the Greater Bay Area putting pressure on Hong Kong's demand, the limited supply of modern logistics facilities land is expected to attract interest from the logistics industry. However, due to the high development costs, the number of investors with capital to invest in such projects is limited, so the number of bids for these plots is expected to be relatively low."
Commenting on the commercial market in Hong Kong, Li Wanyin added, "The commercial market activities are significantly constrained by high office vacancy rates and declining rents. There were no new commercial land releases or tender plans this year, which aligns with the current market conditions."