PwC's 2025 Outlook: Market volatility may intensify, maintaining a positive outlook on the stock market's prospects.
2024-12-13 10:30
Zhitongcaijing
Pursey's diversified asset investment team expects the market to broaden in the next 6 to 18 months, and will maintain a high allocation of value stocks.
Asset management company T. Rowe Price has released market outlooks, expecting inflation trends and interest rates to remain at relatively high levels, leading to further market volatility. Although inflation may persist, the market environment could favor US economic growth. As profit growth expands from a few leading companies in 2024 to a broader range, various sectors and industries are presenting more investment opportunities. Investors should consider diversifying investments into sectors with reasonable valuations and stable fundamentals, such as high-yield bonds and value stocks. There are also individual investment opportunities in undervalued industries such as energy, finance, and industrials.
Thomas Poullaouec, Head of Multi-Asset Solutions in the Asia-Pacific region, maintains a positive outlook on the stock market for 2025. Economic growth remains positive, mainly driven by the US with its large-scale fiscal spending and robust job market supporting consumption. While central banks are starting to ease policies, current market pricing does not fully reflect potential uncertainties. Inflation may remain stubborn under the impact of tariffs, with upward risks. Therefore, it is expected that US Treasury yields will rise, and high-yield bonds are preferred in the fixed-income category. T. Rowe Price's multi-asset investment team expects the market to broaden in the next 6 to 18 months and maintain a high allocation to value stocks. Given that most asset classes are not fully reflecting uncertain factors, along with inflation risks, it is advised to maintain a high allocation to cash and physical assets stocks in a diversified investment portfolio.
Ken Orchard, Director of International Fixed Income at T. Rowe Price, emphasizes that although the Federal Reserve started a monetary easing cycle in September, if rate cuts are not as expected, yields may still rise. Looking ahead to 2025, high-yield bonds and bank loans will continue to be the most profitable categories in fixed income, while emerging market bonds also offer steady income opportunities. It is expected that after the US presidential election, the market will continue to be volatile, leading to an expansion in credit spreads, which remained narrow for most of 2024. However, the global economy is not expected to enter a recession in the next 12 months, with rate cuts and lower energy prices supporting consumption and economic growth, so the widening of credit spreads is expected to be moderate. Global growth may exceed expectations. Given significant risks of inflation rebound, it is advisable to consider allocating part of inflation-linked bonds, such as US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), in a diversified investment portfolio.
Chun Ling Kuan, Manager of the T. Rowe Price Emerging Markets Bond Strategy Fund, states that the fundamentals of emerging market fixed income are good, with economic growth slowing but still stable, and the risk of recession has significantly decreased. Inflation continues to ease, overall favorable to central banks maintaining loose monetary policies, which benefits fixed income assets with attractive yields. In general, emerging market sovereign bonds and corporate credits, as well as individual rate markets, have positive outlooks. Regions including Asia, due to their limited fiscal expansion, will face lighter inflation pressure, but their policy flexibility will be constrained by the global financial environment. The US remains outstanding in terms of economic growth and investment attractiveness, continuing to support the trend of the US dollar. Although geopolitical tensions have eased, risks, such as US trade policies, tariff strategies, and fiscal expansion, may bring greater uncertainty to emerging markets.
Rahul Ghosh, Global Equity Portfolio Specialist at T. Rowe Price, believes that global stock markets are expected to achieve favorable returns in 2025, with promising sectors expanding more broadly than in 2024. In the US market, fiscal and regulatory measures, as well as technological innovation, will continue to drive the local business cycle. While the technology sector will still impact market performance, the expected market opportunities will continue to expand, extending from large tech stocks to finance, healthcare, and industrial sectors. The development trend of artificial intelligence remains strong, but the growth rate of infrastructure may slow down, bringing broader opportunities to the market. In the healthcare sector, new generations of treatment methods and technologies, such as GLP-1s (Glucagon-like peptide-1) or AI-driven screening and analysis, are creating a golden age for the healthcare industry.
Investment opportunities in international markets will also be more extensive, but may be affected by the new tariff system of the next US government. Global trade concerns and the strengthening of the US dollar are expected to lead to significant differentiation in regional performances, with markets driven by unique and/or domestic demand likely to lead. The mid-term outlook for the Japanese stock market remains optimistic, as local companies prioritize profitability over market share. Countries like India and Vietnam continue to provide differentiated investment opportunities.