Invesco: Recent retreat may be a good opportunity to "buy low and accumulate" Indian stocks.
2024-12-13 14:10
Zhitongcaijing
Zhao Yaoting indicated that the recent decline in the stock market may be a good opportunity to "buy low and absorb" and to purchase some Indian stocks.
Zhaoyao Court, strategist for the Asia-Pacific global market (excluding Japan) at Invesco, wrote that since the outbreak of the epidemic, the Indian stock market has been in a continuous bull market. However, due to periodic slowdown, the market fell by about 9% from its historical high last month, followed by a rebound. The recent decline may be a good opportunity to "buy low and absorb" and purchase some Indian stocks.
As of the quarter ending in November, GDP growth in India has slowed to 5.4% year-on-year, far lower than expected (estimated at 6.5%, compared to 6.7% in the previous quarter). Zhaoyao Court believes that the current economic slowdown and some negative news about India's largest conglomerates may be the reasons for the outflow of foreign funds. However, the Indian stock market still shows resilience, as domestic fund inflows offset about half of the outflow of foreign funds.
Zhaoyao Court stated that the current slowdown should be considered cyclical, a normal phenomenon that occurs in almost every major economy. Manufacturing and domestic consumption growth have weakened successively, but seasonal factors in this quarter and the next quarter should improve the data. Private consumption accounts for about 60% of India's GDP, meaning that to achieve recovery, Indian consumers need to "open their wallets". Signs of recovery have already been seen. The festive season has begun, extreme weather has ended, and the growth in agricultural production in the last quarter should help boost rural consumption.
In addition, the controversial general elections have ended, and the Indian government is focusing on getting growth back on track. In the coming months, there is hope for an expansion of infrastructure stimulus. Domestic demand boost combined with increased government spending and a likely rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India may stimulate private sector spending and attract foreign investors' attention.
He emphasized that due to persistent high inflation, the Reserve Bank of India decided to keep its policy rate unchanged at its meeting in December. The current cyclical slowdown in the domestic economy will undoubtedly benefit from a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India. Invesco will closely monitor any legal developments between the US Department of Justice and Indian corporate entities. As of now, local investors have largely escaped the impact of the events, and the risk of the scandal spreading is low.
He believes that although investors may think for some reasons that the Indian macroeconomy is declining, the economy and the market are not out. Stimulated by the Indian government's investment and improvement in domestic consumption, growth is expected to accelerate in the coming quarters. The unfavorable factors facing the market and the economy are diminishing. For foreign investors who have been sitting on the fence due to the overvaluation of Indian stocks, this may be a good opportunity to "buy low and absorb" and purchase some Indian stocks. In addition, December has traditionally been favorable for the Indian stock market, with the Nifty index recording an increase in nearly three-quarters of the time in the past 30 years, with an average increase of 3% compared to the previous month.