Daxin Financial: In the first half of next year, the Hang Seng Index may challenge the 23,100 point mark. The prospects for high-yield stocks and domestic consumption sectors are relatively positive.
2024-12-18 21:12
Zhitongcaijing
Dah Sing Financial released its economic and market outlook for 2025. The institution predicts that the Hang Seng Index may test 23,100 points in the first half of next year, with support at the 17,000 point level. The prospects for high-dividend stocks, domestic consumption, and sectors supported by national policies are relatively positive.
The Dai Xin Finance released its economic and market outlook for 2025. The organization predicts that Hong Kong's economy will grow by 2.8% in 2025, with the Hang Seng Index potentially testing 23,100 points in the first half of next year, and support at the 17,000 point level; the prospects for high-dividend stocks, domestic consumption, and policy support sectors may be more positive.
Dai Xin Finance's Chief Economist and Strategist Wen Jiawei mentioned that the outlook for major central bank rate cuts is uncertain, coupled with geopolitical tensions, which may increase volatility in the Hong Kong stock market. It is expected that the Hang Seng Index will temporarily find support around 17,000 points, and if stable economic and real estate measures lead to a stabilization in economic growth and effectively drive corporate profit prospects, it may help the Hang Seng Index test 23,100 points in the first half of next year.
He noted that mainland China has uncommonly introduced a wide range of financial and monetary measures, coupled with the Central Economic Work Conference stating the need to stabilize the real estate and stock markets, as well as raising the fiscal deficit target and vigorously boosting consumption, reflecting the determination to stabilize the mainland's economy and real estate market. Whether these measures will have a real impact will still need to be observed over time.
He pointed out that Hong Kong's overall economy will continue to face many challenges next year, with changes in the consumer patterns of mainland Chinese visitors impacting the development of the retail industry in Hong Kong, and the effect of Shenzhen resuming the 'one visit, multiple entries' endorsement on driving the retail industry and attracting overnight visitors may be limited. Considering that local demand has not improved, and exports also face many pressures, it is estimated that Hong Kong's economy will grow by 2.8% in 2025.
Wen Jiawei also mentioned that Hong Kong's most favorable interest rates are beginning to decrease following the United States, and mortgage rates are also falling accordingly. Coupled with the Hong Kong government relaxing the loan-to-value ratio for residential investment properties, it will help stabilize property prices and increase transactions. However, the continuous increase in potential supply for primary residential properties may limit the rebound in secondary property prices, with the full-year property price increase in 2025 expected to be below 5%.