Invesco: The stronger than expected US dollar may have adverse effects on emerging market assets.
2024-12-20 15:18
Zhitongcaijing
"Inflation rebound" is mentioned as an uncertain factor in Shenzhen's investment outlook, and this situation seems more likely to occur.
Zhao Yaoting, market strategist for Schroders Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan), referred to this rate cut as a hawkish rate cut. From a positive perspective, this rate cut by the Federal Reserve exceeds the loosening cycle of 1995-96, during which the U.S. economy avoided a recession and subsequently experienced strong growth. Ultimately, the Fed's policy will be data-driven, so the bank needs to pay attention to the data to understand the path of monetary policy. In addition, Schroders also needs to monitor whether the U.S. dollar will be stronger than expected, as this could particularly adversely affect emerging market assets.
As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cut rates by 25 basis points. Zhao Yaoting noted that the market clearly had an instinctive reaction to the unexpected dot plot prediction, but it is important to note that the dot plot can be very inaccurate. In December 2021, the Fed's dot plot predicted a rate hike in 2022 of less than 100 basis points, but later the rate hike in 2022 exceeded 400 basis points.
Zhao Yaoting maintains the same outlook for investments. Schroders expects loose monetary policy to continue, but in a more gradual manner, and global economic growth will accelerate next year. This means that the bank still expects risk assets to perform well next year. Fed chair Powell mentioned at yesterday's meeting the close monitoring of future developments in the labor market. Although loose policy is currently being implemented orderly, the Fed is clearly very concerned about the condition of the labor market.
"Inflation rebound" is mentioned as an uncertain factor in Schroders' investment outlook, and this situation seems more likely to occur. Especially if FOMC members anticipate policy impacts from the Trump administration's policies before they appear in the data, and take action to cool inflation preemptively, this is something that needs to be monitored closely.