There are still two trading days left, and the A-shares of 2024 are about to come to a close. The Shanghai Composite Index has risen by over 14% this year, and the daily K-line trend can represent investors' experiences fairly well. At the beginning of the year, there was a sudden attack in the market, and the index hit a low point in February. After a rapid rebound, emotions again hesitated and divided, facing consecutive shrinking trading volumes. Then, "924" became the biggest turning point in the A-share market this year. For the market, seizing the opportunity in the second half of the year can lead to a successful year. Unlike the active management of 2023, where Huaxia Beijiao Exchange's innovative small and medium-sized enterprise selection fund won the championship, the champion of actively managed funds in 2024 has already been determined, with two trading days left. Morgan Stanley Digital Economy, managed by Lei Zhiyong, the deputy director of Morgan Stanley's equity investment department, has achieved a return rate of 75.9% this year. With nearly a 20% advantage, it is leading by a wide margin. While the champion fund has been determined, the active fund managers have started the battle for the runner-up. Currently, the second place is held by Jin Zicai, the manager of Caitong Jinqi Zhenxuan, with a return rate of 56.85%. However, there are others such as Lu Yang and Lei Tao, Han Hao, Zhou Desheng, Zhang Yufan and Marina, Wang Peng, Wang Xiaochuan, Wang Sen, Zhang Lin, and others with a return rate of over 50%, making the competition intense. It is worth noting that even though it is a big year for ETFs, the size of passive funds has surpassed that of active funds in the past three quarters. However, fund companies have significantly increased their promotion and exposure of active fund managers. Many institutions also believe that actively managed equity funds are still one of the tools for providing long-term returns to investors. This article will address the following five questions regarding the 2024 public fund active funds and active fund managers that are about to end. The first question: The champion has been determined, who is Lei Zhiyong? The second question: Who has a chance to win the runner-up? The third question: Why are smaller funds ranking higher? The fourth question: Can active fund managers return to the spotlight? The fifth question: How do excellent active fund managers view 2025? The first question: The champion has been essentially determined, who is Lei Zhiyong? Lei Zhiyong's championship has already been demonstrated in the second half of the year. At the end of August this year, Morgan Stanley's digital economy ranked second in the entire market during the dividend bonus period. At the time, in an interview with Cailian News, Lei Zhiyong stated that the dividend sector and artificial intelligence have been favored by the market this year. The fund manager believes that the dividend assets and artificial intelligence seem to be two different directions, but essentially reflect the same concept, which is certainty. The certainty of the growth sector comes from high performance growth, continuous orders, and even supply exceeding demand. During extreme volatility in the first half of the year, they were able to adhere to the strategy under the premise of confirming the industry trend and the underlying fundamentals remained strong. By the end of the third quarter, Morgan Stanley's digital economy had already ranked first in the secondary mixed market, leading to the end of the year, further expanding its advantage. Winning the first place this time is the first time a foreign-owned fund has won the championship. Looking at the whole year, Morgan Stanley's digital economy led the benchmark, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, and the average return rate of the secondary mixed market since the market rebound began in February. With an industry background, Lei Zhiyong prioritizes certainty in the investment process and is prepared to grasp the rhythm. In the review of fund managers, the concentration was on high certainty sectors such as light modules and PCB in the first quarter, reducing positions in small-cap computing power companies in the second quarter, adhering to the strategy since 924, and refocusing on the fundamentals at the end of the year. The product once again achieved relative returns. Second question: Who has a chance to win the runner-up? With the champion essentially determined, the competition for the runner-up has heated up. This year, there are 16 actively managed funds with a return rate of over 50% and 25 funds with a return rate of over 45%. In terms of possibilities, all have a chance. Among them, the return rate range from 50.5% to 56.85% for ranking 2-16, with a difference of less than 7%, who can win the runner-up and third place? This has become a highly anticipated event. Currently in the finals, the hottest candidate for the runner-up is Jin Zicai, the deputy general manager and director of equity investments at Caitong Fund. Not only is he temporarily ranked second, his products that have entered the finals are the most, reaching 5. Products managed by Lu Yang and Lei Tao, Han Hao, Zhou Desheng, and Zhang Yufan and Marina also have a strong chance. Some public fund personnel informed Cailian News reporters that in the final two-week stretch of this year, the battle for the champion fund has become tense, and communication between excellent fund companies has significantly decreased. "Everyone is inquiring about the recent thoughts and strategies of fund managers, but from fund managers to researchers, everyone is keeping quiet." However, looking at their holdings, these funds all held shares of Zhongjixuchuang, Xin Yisheng, Shanghai Electric Power, and LeGrand Technology by the end of the third quarter. There is a high overlap in their major stockholdings, so in the end, it will depend on which fund's unique stocks perform better. Third question: Why are smaller funds ranking higher? One significant feature of excellent funds this year is that they tend to be smaller in size. Except for those managed by Lei Zhiyong, Jin Zicai, Wang Peng, and Zheng Weishan, the rest are relatively small in size. There are many products with only a few million or a little over a hundred million in management. Industry insiders point out that smaller funds ranking at the top cannot be denied that the fund managers have seized opportunities. Furthermore, size is the enemy of performance. Smaller products are more flexible, making it easier for them to adjust their positions and change stocks. At the same time, it is also unfortunate that many excellent funds have faced redemptions as their performance continued to rise. "The higher the rise, the more they sell" has become one of the reasons why many top-performing funds have remained small in size. Fourth question: Can active fund managers return to the spotlight? Recently, fund companies have significantly increased their efforts in promoting active fund managers. Many companies have made new upgrades to their active equity investment research systems, from talent acquisition, product organization, and internal management to revitalize their active equity investment. Looking at the current situation, the return rate of Morgan Stanley's digital economy is also ahead of the South China Shanghai and Shenzhen Science and Technology Innovation Board Chip ETF, so can active fund managers regain trust? Institutions and individual investors have different opinions. For the continued reading of this text, please visit the original source.As far as the company is concerned, active management is still a manifestation of professionalism and a key to income. The basis of performance is still beta, but there are always people who can achieve alpha, which is the charm of active management.Multiple institutions' research reports also believe that, from the perspective of historical performance, market adaptability, and the value of professional fund managers, active equity funds are still one of the tools for seeking long-term returns for investors. Minsheng Jiayin believes that in a rapidly rising bull market, passive index funds usually perform better. However, during stages when the market trend is unclear, active equity funds, due to the active management of fund managers, often seek a more resilient performance by adjusting positions and stock selection to achieve a return portfolio that aligns with investment goals. Zheshang Securities also indicated that active funds still have the opportunity to return to strength in 2025. Since 2005, after deducting costs not lower than 1% fees, active equity funds have still provided a 2% annual excess return relative to the A500 index, with a 4% annual decrease in volatility, and have maintained low investment thresholds and high transparency, offering good cost-effectiveness. However, past returns do not guarantee future performance, and it is necessary to reconstruct trust mechanisms. Currently, it is crucial to answer two questions for investors: 1) When will active funds' excess returns return as a whole? 2) Structurally, how can products surpass ETFs be provided? However, for individual investors, ETFs are becoming increasingly popular, and the image of active funds needs to be repaired after the harm caused by previous star fund managers. Furthermore, how do the top-performing active fund managers view 2025? Looking ahead to the new year, the opinions of fund managers are gradually being released. Regarding the technology sector, Lei Zhiyong stated that in 2025, they will continue to track macro fundamentals, industry prosperity, and the performance of individual stocks. They will focus on the progress of NVIDIA chips, packaging capacity, as well as dynamic changes in US-China relations that may lead to sanctions. However, from a broader perspective, they will continue to focus on sectors showing upward trends in the artificial intelligence industry chain. In terms of trend judgment, Jin Zicai believes that in the short to medium term, including in 2025, the current market trends are mainly driven by valuations brought about by liquidity. Therefore, policies continuously being implemented and advanced are more important than economic fundamentals. From the policy combinations on September 24th, to the Financial Ministry conference on October 12th exceeding expectations, and to the Political Bureau meeting on December 9th, mentioning "moderately loose monetary policy" and "more proactive fiscal policy" for the first time in 15 years, proactive statements and continuous issuance of incremental policies provide the possibility for the market to maintain high valuation levels. They anticipate the implementation and advancement of specific policies in 2025, as well as the potential resolution of local implicit debt and real estate inventory issues after policies are in place, which could help lighten the burden on local governments and gradually restore domestic effective demand, aiding in stabilizing and rebounding the overall economy. He Qi, General Manager of the Public Fund Equity Department of Xibu Lide Fund, pointed out that looking ahead, the policies towards real estate and the stock market are expected to continue, and the reevaluation of Chinese assets' prices is gradually unfolding. It is expected that the A-share market will experience a good structural market trend in 2025, but upside potential will be influenced by domestic policy determination and global macroenvironment. For the industry sectors, Marina, a fund manager of Gongyi Ruixin Fund, stated that they are optimistic about two directions in 2025: the first being AI-driven technology industries and the second being the optimization direction of the past two years' supply and demand in the domestic market. "In the technology sector in 2025, especially in the areas of artificial intelligence and semiconductors, are expected to continue to be the main investment focus in 2025." Zhang Lin, a fund manager at China Merchants Mobile Internet Fund, also believes that potential risks need to be considered, including the possibility that domestic demand recovery may take longer, uncertainties in overseas economies and geopolitical policies, particularly the potential impact of US trade protection and anti-globalization policies on the global trade system and Sino-US economic relations. For the technology industry, potential risks include underperforming AI industry development, such as slowing progress in large model capabilities, delayed industry applications or widespread deployments. This article is reproduced from "Cai Lianshe". GMTEight editor: Jiang Yuanhua.