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Schroder Investment Management: US stock valuations are nearing their highest levels in 143 years, but there are still multiple reasons to support investment.
Schroders Investment Strategy Research Director Duncan Lamont pointed out that the US stock market is expected to remain the global leader in 2024, having been in the top spot for 6 out of the past 7 years.
Schroders global investment strategy research department head Duncan Lamont pointed out that the U.S. stock market is expected to continue to dominate globally until 2024, having been in the top spot for 6 out of the past 7 years. While many people predict the long-term advantage of U.S. stocks will come to an end, and believe it is a good time to reduce holdings of U.S. stocks, especially large-cap stocks, it may not be comprehensive enough if the opposing arguments are not considered. Apart from the dot-com bubble period, U.S. stock valuations are approaching the highest levels in the past 143 years. Although this is not a new argument, this year's rebound has pushed valuations to disturbingly high levels. In contrast, valuations in other regions are quite reasonable. Compared to historical levels, valuations outside the U.S. are close to fair value. Therefore, from a relative value perspective, the valuations of other stock markets are still historically low compared to the U.S. In fact, the U.S. is not the only market expected to see good company performance. It is anticipated that about half of European and Japanese companies will achieve double-digit profit growth over the next 12 months, slightly higher than in the U.S., and it is also predicted that 44% of U.K. companies will perform well. Productivity levels are a key driver of economic growth. In the years following the global financial crisis, U.S. productivity growth outpaced other countries, and during the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, its productivity not only did not decrease, but accelerated further. This gap is expected to persist. If these predictions come true, the U.S.'s economic exceptionalism will continue. Furthermore, it is expected that the U.S.'s labor force population will increase, while other countries will decrease, which will support the U.S.'s long-term economic growth, but this also depends on the development of immigration policies in the future. The U.S. also performs better in economic cycles, bringing more positive economic surprises compared to other regions. Schroders global economic research team recently raised their expectations for U.S. economic growth in 2025 and 2026 in response to President-elect Trump's plans. It is now projected to grow at 2.5% next year, up from 2.1% previously. In contrast, growth forecasts for the Eurozone and the UK are only 1.2% and 1.6%, respectively. However, strong economic growth comes at a cost: higher inflation expectations. While the fundamental forecast is for strong U.S. economic performance, in a downturn scenario, higher inflation and rates could push the U.S. towards stagflation. Approximately 60% of the revenue of U.S. large-cap stocks comes from the U.S., while in other markets it is less than half. If the U.S. economy does indeed thrive, U.S. companies will be the main beneficiaries. However, it is worth noting that U.S. small-cap and value stocks rely more on domestic growth, and if this is a major reason supporting U.S. stocks, this may provide a better investment approach for U.S. stocks. In addition, companies engaging in stock buybacks and mergers and acquisitions provide a continuous source of demand for U.S. stocks.
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