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Morgan Stanley Fund: A-shares may continue to be in a wide range of volatility, with little risk of sustained downward trend.
Morgan Stanley Fund stated that the current market may continue the pattern of wide fluctuations, with the risk of continued downside being low unless policies are effectively tested.
Morgan Stanley Fund released its outlook on the A-share market, stating that the current market may continue to fluctuate widely. In the absence of effective policy validation, the risk of continuous decline is not significant. Areas with strong industrial logic, such as AI, industries with overseas expansion capabilities, and industries benefiting from domestic demand policies, may receive more attention from investors. Morgan Stanley Fund stated that overall, the recent market decline is more due to changes in trading behavior, rather than being significantly related to liquidity and macro fundamentals. The latest released manufacturing PMI remains above the boom-bust line, although the price sub-items are performing poorly, market expectations are relatively sufficient; and the non-manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rebounded, with the sub-items of business activities, construction, and services all showing improvement. From a liquidity perspective, there is not much change, with long-term government bond yields continuing to decline, indicating that the scarcity of assets is becoming more apparent; the CSRC has debunked two rumors; to maintain market liquidity and enhance the stabilizing role of securities and fund institutions, the central bank has initiated a second round of medium-term lending facility operation worth 55 billion yuan. In addition, the National Development and Reform Commission recently held a press conference, focusing on six key areas of work, with the primary task being to comprehensively expand domestic demand, implementing subsidies for the purchase of new digital products such as mobile phones, and providing subsidies to individual consumers for purchasing digital products such as phones, tablets, and smart watches. In addition to digital products, the sales of automobiles and appliances are also important as they account for a larger proportion of total sales, and if the effects continue, they will have a stronger driving effect on the economy. The expected stimulus effect of adding new subsidized product categories to the existing categories of subsidies on consumption is likely to continue, thus, there is a high possibility of consumer improvement in the first half of this year; from a long-term perspective, consumer growth depends on the growth rate of residents' income and income expectations, with the current growth in residents' income still weak, the recovery in the core of consumption growth will be a slow process.
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