UBS: Hang Seng Index target set at 20,000 points by year-end, with expected stable property prices in Hong Kong.
2025-01-08 16:55
Zhitongcaijing
UBS Investment pointed out that the Hang Seng Index target by the end of this year is 20,000 points. Influenced by expectations of rate cuts, phased implementation of tariff measures starting in the third quarter, and the effects of stimulus policies on the mainland, Hong Kong stocks may experience intense volatility this year.
UBS Investment Bank's Hong Kong strategist, Chan Chi Lap, pointed out that the target for the Hang Seng Index at the end of this year is 20,000 points. Due to the reduction in interest rate expectations, phased implementation of tariff measures starting in the third quarter, and the effects of mainland stimulus policies, the Hong Kong stock market may experience violent fluctuations this year. Chan Chi Lap stated that the above target is based on the bank's increased estimation of risk premium to reflect interest rates and geopolitical uncertainties.
In terms of stock selection, Chan Chi Lap recommends high-yield stocks such as infrastructure, telecommunications, and property stocks with better financial performance. For high beta stocks, he recommends internet stocks, Macau gaming stocks, beer, dairy, and consumer electronics stocks. The latest US 10-year bond yield has climbed to an 8-month high of nearly 4.7%. Chan Chi Lap pointed out that if the 10-year bond yield continues to rise, companies may face refinancing issues.
Regarding recent technology stocks being placed on the US blacklist, although the list does not hinder business transactions, he referred to past examples where related companies underperformed the market in the same year, so the current situation needs to be observed.
Regarding the property market, UBS Investment Bank's Hong Kong real estate analyst, Leung Chin Ka, stated that small and medium-sized developers may be eager to cash out due to interest payment issues, involving approximately 4,000 to 5,000 units. There is continued downward price risk in the property market, but it is estimated that the Hong Kong government has measures to maintain price stability. On the other hand, if the US stops cutting interest rates, rental yields and mortgage rates freeze, it will have a negative impact on property prices. He expects Hong Kong property prices to remain flat this year. Office rental declines are expected to narrow to flat to a 5% decrease; while retail property values are expected to remain flat to a 5% decrease.
The bank expects residential property supply in Hong Kong to peak this year due to a tepid response to land sales. Regarding the latest application by the West Kowloon Authority to build nearly 2,000 residential units in the area, Leung Chin Ka stated that the market response to the West Kowloon project is questionable in reality, as developers currently need to clear inventory first, otherwise investor interest remains low.
According to the bank's analysis, the most suitable areas for entering the market in Hong Kong and Kowloon are the West, Hung Hom, and Outlying Islands; while the least suitable areas are the South, Shek Kip Mei, Kowloon Tong, and Yuen Long, with Yuen Long ranking the lowest in terms of desirability in Hong Kong.