At the 2025 Global Economic and Hong Kong Export Outlook Seminar organized by the Hong Kong Export Credit Agency, Kelvin Xue, head of the Economic Research Department and Chief Economist of Hang Seng Bank (00011), said that the market sentiment was not ideal in the high interest rate environment last year. However, entering a rate-cutting cycle this year, major central banks around the world have successively cut interest rates, and US inflation has fallen, providing room for central banks to ease policy. Xue stated that the Federal Reserve is acting cautiously, and the market estimates that US interest rates will gradually decline under the impact of high interest rates, weakening economic demand. He believes that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates only twice this year as the market expects, but may have the opportunity to cut rates 3 to 4 times, each time by 25 basis points. He pointed out that the US tariff measures are of concern, and the export environment in Hong Kong will still be challenging, but emphasized that mainland exports are still competitive. Based on the performance after past tariff increases, mainland goods exports have not declined in global market share but have instead increased. Therefore, he is not entirely pessimistic about mainland exports this year. As for Hong Kong, it is expected to benefit from US interest rate cuts and stabilization of the mainland economy. Interest rates are a positive factor, as Hong Kong bank rates will fall following the US rate cuts, which is good for businesses and citizens. The tourism industry is continuing to recover, with visitor numbers to Hong Kong last year exceeding pre-pandemic levels. Positive factors are yet to be reflected, and it is believed that this year will be similar to last year.