Recently, Liang Wentao, jokingly referred to by investors as "Ex-husband Brother," has once again sparked heated discussions. Industry insiders revealed that Liang Wentao's new fund products are selling like hotcakes, with investors scrambling to buy them. "Honghu Liangbo's new 200 slots are all taken!" the insider said. Financial Union reporters found that Honghu Private Equity achieved impressive results in 2024, with its products averaging a return of 66.83% and a median return of 85.74% last year. The outstanding performance explains why the new products are in high demand. The insider also pointed out, "Liang Wentao's good performance in 2024 was a result of timing, location, and personnel. It's hard to say whether he can repeat his success in 2025." Looking at the data, as of 2025, the products under Honghu Private Equity have hit the "brakes," with only 6 comparable products showing an annual return of around 1-2%. Last year, Honghu Private Equity's average returns exceeded 60%, leading to a significant increase in scale. Public data shows that Honghu Private Equity, founded by Liang Wentao in March 2010, focuses on systematic macro strategies. Based on the macro strategy research system and quantitative timing models of Honghu, the allocation recommendations are made by analyzing various factors such as the macroeconomic cycle, money supply, market valuation levels, macro policy orientation, and market sentiment. This helps determine the investment proportions of equity, money market instruments, commodity futures, and other financial instruments, aiming to obtain returns from asset allocation. They also use a quant model to select varieties for timing trading to optimize investment returns and risk drawdown. According to Private Equity Ranking Network data, Honghu Private Equity has 6 comparable products, with an average return of 66.83%. Specifically, the highest-performing product last year was Honghu Stable Macro Hedge, with a return of 88.23%. Similarly, two products managed by Liang Wentao, Honghu Stable Macro Strategy 5th period and Honghu Stable Macro Strategy 6th period, had returns of 85.91% and 85.57% respectively. Another product managed by him, Honghu Gaoteng Boyu 2nd period Macro Strategy, as well as Honghu Gaoteng Boyu Macro Strategy managed jointly with Shi Yiwei, both had returns of over 25% last year. Honghu Hongfu Positive Configuration 1st period was established in May last year and achieved a cumulative return of 40.41%. Such outstanding performance not only triggered the hot sales of new products but also led to rapid growth in scale for Honghu Private Equity last year. The Private Equity Ranking Network data shows that as of the end of 2023, Honghu Private Equity's scale ranged from 10-20 billion RMB, but by 2024, the scale had grown to 20-50 billion RMB, achieving a significant increase in scale. Is the performance sustainable? Behind the frenzy of new product sales, there are also questions from investors about whether Honghu Private Equity's performance can be sustained. It is worth mentioning that Liang Wentao said in a letter to investors at the beginning of the year, "2024 was a year when Honghu's systematic macro strategies were tested by the market, and it was also a year when our accumulated efforts paid off. In this year, we were fortunate to receive the attention and recognition of many investors. Many investor friends, in their interactions with Honghu, began to recognize the importance of the 'diversified investment' concept for asset allocation. This is not only an iteration of investment concepts but also a mutual journey between us and investors." For Liang Wentao's mentioned "diversified investment," some investors have raised doubts, with some saying he is "all in government bonds," and some even directly expressing: "Do you think the performance can be sustained when relying heavily on government bond futures?" There are also views that "last year, Honghu's main source of income was from government bond futures, and it is unlikely to have such high returns in the near future." From the background analysis, in 2024, China's economy was in a period of transitioning from old to new growth models, with a slowdown in the overall growth rate. To hedge against the systemic risks brought about by the economic slowdown, the central bank increased the intensity of counter-cyclical adjustments to ensure stable market liquidity. With the dual support of fundamentals and monetary policy, the bond market saw an unexpected bull market last year, with the annual increase in the continuous annual yield of 30-year government bond futures reaching as high as 17%. From Honghu Private Equity's performance attribution, bonds also accounted for a significant proportion. In terms of performance, as of 2025, the performance curves of products under Honghu Private Equity have slowed down. For example, the highest-performing product last year, Honghu Stable Macro Hedge, had a profit of 2.85% as of January 17th, with a new net asset value of 7.83. The other two products that achieved over 80% returns last year - Honghu Stable Macro Strategy 5th period and Honghu Stable Macro Strategy 6th period - had returns of 2.78% and 1.82% respectively this year. Honghu Gaoteng Boyu 2nd period Macro Strategy had a return of 1.49%. In recent public statements, Liang Wentao also emphasized using a more balanced allocation in 2025 to better cope with high volatility markets. Looking ahead to 2025, market opportunities may present a more balanced outlook, with stocks, bonds, and commodity markets all having certain opportunities. However, overall, it is unlikely to see a particularly large trending market. From a macro perspective, 2025 will be a year of strong policy-driven activity and continued loose monetary policy. However, effective demand in the real economy remains inadequate, making it difficult to create a momentum for a one-sided market. Therefore, Liang Wentao believes that the market is more likely to be in a fluctuating pattern, and a more reasonable strategy is a combination of defense and counterattack. In terms of research direction, Liang Wentao stated that he will focus on the commodity market in 2025. He pointed out that apart from precious metals, most bulk commodities have gradually converged in volatility in the past three years and are currently at historically low volatility levels. Therefore, he believes that 2025 may be an important year for the commodity sector. Liang Wentao specifically mentioned that the volatility of the commodity sector in 2025 is likely to significantly increase. In terms of varieties, he pointed out that precious metals, which have performed well in the past three years, may enter a period of high volatility in 2025. This article is reprinted from "Financial Union." Editor: Liu Xuan.