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EastSpring Investments: The global economic outlook is likely to remain favorable this year, but appropriate protective measures need to be put in place.
Dongfang Hui Li Asset Management stated in a document that, in the environment of moderate economic growth in the United States and economic recovery in Europe, there is a high probability that the global outlook for 2025 will remain optimistic.
Oriental Wisdom Asset Management stated in a document that in the environment of moderate economic growth in the United States and economic recovery in Europe, there is a strong possibility for the global outlook in 2025 to remain ideal. Mild inflation is expected to support domestic consumption, but monetary, fiscal, and international trade policies may cast shadows over the outlook. Additionally, the trade policies of Trump and Europe's reaction to them must be clarified. Prior to this, the company believes that investors should consider maintaining protective measures and other stable sources, while also seizing opportunities brought about by the stable US economy and the attractive valuations in the market. Oriental Wisdom Asset Management stated that in 2024, the market was driven by positive news regarding the economy, corporate earnings, and political environment, but occasionally faced unexpected news. Looking ahead, the market will be influenced by various factors, including earnings growth, a slowdown in US economic growth, labor market restructuring but not a sharp deterioration. On the other hand, the stance of the Federal Reserve is becoming firmer, and Trump's trade stance and the international community's response may trigger market volatility. Outside the US, European economic growth and decisions, as well as China's response to domestic issues, will also impact the market. Trump's fiscal and trade policies will affect market inflation expectations and yield volatility, especially in the long end of the yield curve, prompting the Federal Reserve to remain vigilant against any risks to its inflation target. Due to concerns about economic growth, the company believes that the European Central Bank will face multiple challenges. However, the good news is that the pace of inflation decline may be faster than the central bank's expectations, thus supporting real income. The above situation shows that investors must continue to flexibly manage their maturity. Additionally, corporate credit from European, US, and emerging market companies will also present income opportunities. Oriental Wisdom Asset Management pointed out that in the past few months, the pro-cyclical trend in the US and Europe has continued, reinforcing the view that the economy will not decline. For the market, if corporate profits continue to meet expectations, this is positive. However, this situation may also lead to speculation and overheating in certain areas, and any disappointing earnings performance will have a serious impact on valuations. In Europe, a drop in inflation will increase real income, stimulating consumption. This situation is slightly advantageous for European stocks, as valuations seem to have already reflected most of the bad news. However, we seek to balance this by prioritizing the financial strength, pricing power, and profit potential of stocks in the US, Europe, Japan, and emerging markets driven by fundamental factors.
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