Anben: US large technology stocks may become retaliatory targets in the trade war, choosing to increase investment in China.

2025-02-07 13:58

Zhitongcaijing
Luo Xun said that, maintaining his basic prediction of the impact of Trump's tariff policy and DeepSeek on the market and investments, he believes that the main purpose of the tariff policy is to negotiate more favorable conditions in trade negotiations.
Wei, the chief manager of the Anben Greater China multi-asset investment plan, stated that their basic prediction on the impact of Trump's tariff policy and DeepSeek on the market and investments is that the main purpose of the tariff policy is to negotiate more favorable conditions in trade talks. The US still has an advantage in the trade war, however, considering the high business share of large US stocks (especially tech stocks) in overseas markets, they may become retaliation targets, so they are diversifying investments into non-tech US stocks. At the same time, Wei also mentioned that due to China's relatively advantageous position compared to other emerging markets, they are increasing investments in China. Additionally, they are focusing on sectors with good fundamentals that center around the domestic market rather than the US market, such as European banks, but are waiting for the right entry timing.
Wei pointed out that the US has advantages in consumption, investment, reserve currency status, and military power, allowing them to effectively use tariffs as pressure. Trump also plans to use tariff policies to increase revenue and reduce the deficit, meaning that some tariff measures will eventually be implemented. For countries with smaller economies that are highly dependent on trade, their ability to retaliate against the US's tariff policies is relatively weak. Retaliatory actions may be limited, and it is expected that there will be a continuous cycle of "escalation, retaliation, negotiation, and easing", leading to market volatility. The S&P 500 index and US Treasury bond yields will play a key balancing role, and a collapse on either side may force Trump to soften his stance.
From a macro perspective, tariff policies will lead to divergence in global monetary policies. The US will face dual pressures of short-term inflation and economic growth slowdown, contradicting the current loose policy of the Federal Reserve. As for other economies targeted by the Trump administration, tariff measures will bring downward pressures on their economic growth and inflation, potentially resulting in asset return models with currency devaluation and lower interest rates, aligning with the loose policy direction being implemented by central banks in countries other than Japan.
Investors are prepared for greater market volatility in the era of "Trump 2.0", assuming lower overall risks compared to 2024. As tariff policies increase the downside risks to global economic growth in the medium term, this supports the view of increased survival period risk investments. Given the negative impact of tariff risks on EU economic growth and inflation, EU government bonds are favored. The strategy of long-term holding of the US dollar is maintained, but has been slightly reduced due to the sharp appreciation of the dollar, and selectively diversified into stocks.
Currently, DeepSeek's development trajectory better aligns with the optimistic expectations of the Jevons Paradox, where improvements in efficiency lead to net growth in demand. DeepSeek's groundbreaking progress challenges the high valuation premium of US tech stocks, as the US will no longer be the only country dominating AI technology, especially in the context of DeepSeek's open-source model. This may increase the downside risk for large US tech stocks and trigger rotation of funds into other sectors.
On the other hand, the emergence of DeepSeek has a positive impact on the market sentiment of Chinese tech stocks. Some Chinese tech giants already have the capability to build AI models comparable to DeepSeek, which tactically favors the MSCI China index, especially in the current environment of low valuation, light fund allocation, and improving profit cycles.