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Are actively managed funds outperforming again? What is different this time from the prior occasions when they outperformed passive indices?
After the bubble of star fund managers, ETFs quickly rose, gradually replacing active management, becoming a convenient tool for investors to enter the market. By the end of the third quarter of 2024, a historic moment arrived for passive and active management, with passive management assets surpassing active management for the first time.
The speculation triggered by this DeepSeek event in the artificial intelligence industry has led to a reevaluation discussion of the value of Chinese technology stocks by global capital. As a result, the AI sectors of the Hong Kong and A-share markets have soared, with the Hang Seng Tech Index entering a technical bull market. In the midst of high prosperity, as of February 10th, several funds have achieved record returns for the year, with two notable characteristics: Firstly, the highest return rate for the year has reached 47%. The Penghua Carbon Neutral Theme Fund managed by Yan Siqian has a year-to-date return rate of 47%, followed closely by the YongYuan Advanced Manufacturing Smart Selection managed by Zhang Lu, with a return rate of 45.4%. In addition, 35 funds under China Aviation, Qianhai Kaiyuan, Ping An, and Fuguo, focusing on themes such as technology and new energy, have achieved year-to-date return rates of over 20%. Secondly, actively managed funds have once again significantly outperformed passive investments for the year. As of February 10th, actively managed products have taken 45 out of the top 50 positions in terms of year-to-date returns, with the best-performing ETF being the Boshi Science and Technology Innovation Board AI ETF, with a year-to-date return rate of 24.44% and a ranking of 16 in the overall market. After the hype of star fund managers, ETFs have quickly risen and gradually replaced active management as a convenient tool for investors to enter the market. By the end of the third quarter of 2024, passive management surpassed active management in terms of total assets for the first time. Fund companies have been actively expanding their offerings of ETFs and other passive index products, with ETFs becoming a crucial part of their business strategy for scaling. Returning to the issue of returns, in the ongoing debate between active and passive investments, the question of which is better may remain unresolved. However, looking at the products themselves, what unique qualities allow certain funds to lead the pack? Has there been a new change in actively managed funds that is worth exploring further? Active management takes the lead with 45 out of the top 50 positions in terms of returns Actively managed funds have once again taken the lead in terms of returns. As of February 10th, there are already 34 funds with year-to-date returns exceeding 20%, with only one passive ETF - the Boshi Science and Technology Innovation Board AI ETF. Out of the top 50 funds in terms of returns, passive investments only hold 5 positions. Specifically, the champion fund is the Penghua Carbon Neutral Theme Fund with a return rate of 47.08%, managed by the previous "Electric Car Goddess" Yan Siqian, who has now become the "AI Vanguard". The second-place fund is the YongYuan Advanced Manufacturing Smart Selection managed by Zhang Lu, with a year-to-date return rate of 45.39%. The third-place fund is the China Aviation Trend Navigator managed by Wang Sen, with a year-to-date return rate of 37.89%. When the short-term return rate reaches 20%, the market may question whether fund managers are "gamblers". But when the gains exceed 40%, the narrative shifts to "investment skill at play".As the market changes and after a large number of actively managed funds have outperformed, the market is once again considering who should be chosen.Zhejiang Merchants Fund previously pointed out that passive investment strategies invest in market index funds to earn market average returns, while active strategies actively seek out high-quality companies in the market to earn excess returns . This naturally determines that the two types of products adapt to different styles and market conditions, in the following three situations, active management is highly likely to underperform passive management. First, as the market becomes more efficient, it is increasingly difficult to obtain excess returns through technical analysis, fundamental analysis, etc. Information transmission efficiency and transparency are constantly increasing, making it harder to obtain excess returns naturally. Second, when the market is volatile and lacks continuous main trends, the sustainability of obtaining excess returns through timing, industry deviations, and style deviations becomes weaker, while the long-term viability of rule-based investment models is constantly increasing. Third, index funds are evolving with the times, with a more balanced industry distribution and more growth potential and vitality. Therefore, compared to before, such indexes themselves have a good , making it more difficult to outperform. In fact, the debate on who performs better is unlikely to have a result. In the complex and ever-changing market, both active and passive strategies have their unique advantages. For investors with strong investment capabilities, it may be more appropriate to choose passive products that track market trends, while for less experienced investors, active funds or investment advisory portfolios may be a better choice. This article is from "Cai Lienshe," GMTEight editor: Liu Xuan.
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Schroder Investment: Neutral rating on mainland China and Hong Kong stock markets.