Recently, Prvise expert Christopher Dillon analyzed the impact of US economic data and Federal Reserve policy on the fixed income market. Currently, the US economy is growing at over 2%, with a 4.0% unemployment rate, and core personal consumption expenditure inflation rate within the Federal Reserve's target range (currently at 2.81%). The US economy is in a "golden girl" state (meaning the economic development is just right). To maintain this state, monetary policy should be set at the central bank's "neutral" interest rate level. In the current environment of reduced globalization, the neutral federal funds rate may be at 3.75% or higher. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will maintain a wait-and-see approach in the first half of 2025, but there are still expectations for two rate cuts before the end of this year, each cut by 0.25%. The latest US inflation data for January was high, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% and a year-on-year increase of 3.3%. Although the headline numbers are worrying and the market is seeking signals for rate cuts, the main factor driving inflation higher in recent years, "owners' equivalent rent," has stabilized. Meanwhile, there may be seasonal factors in the January data. Investors will closely monitor the Federal Reserve's economic forecast summary for March and the new "dot plot" to analyze the worrying inflation data from January. Although the US economy is still robust in the near term, the growth rate is slowing down. Even though the US consumer situation remains positive, doubts are emerging about the potential changes in capital and fiscal expenditure. The scale of this transition may not be smooth. Currently, the yield on the US ten-year Treasury bond seems to fluctuate within the range of 4.40% to 4.80%. Future inflation trends will be tested along with the supply of Treasury bonds. Currently, the US government finances its deficits mainly through the issuance of Treasury securities. If the issue of the US government debt ceiling is resolved and foreign investors show less interest in this asset class, more Treasury bond supply may also test this range. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its policy unchanged, while the European Central Bank is expected to cut rates significantly in the coming months. In addition, many central banks in emerging markets need to consider exchange rate fluctuations when formulating monetary policy. Due to this reason, as well as the gradual decline in globalization trends, the policy pace of many central banks in emerging markets may increasingly differ from that of the Federal Reserve.