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Morgan Stanley Fund: The stock and bond seesaw, what to do with bond funds?
Can I still hold debt-based funds?
Morgan Stanley Funds pointed out in its article that since the press conference of the State Council Information Office on September 24th, A-shares have rebounded strongly, while the bond market has experienced a significant adjustment of "interest rates first, credit later". The recent pullback in the bond market can largely be attributed to factors such as expectations of stable growth policies and improved risk appetite driven by the A-share market. On one hand, the recent intensive release of monetary, stock market, real estate policies, etc., exceeding market expectations, has raised market expectations for subsequent fiscal policies and initiated trading for fiscal stimulus. On the other hand, stock market sentiment has continued to surge, with foreign capital entering the market in large amounts and some funds flowing out of the bond market due to profit-taking, and increased volatility in the bond market due to redemption pressures from wealth management products. Looking ahead, in the medium to long term, the recent Politburo meeting clearly stated that there will be "greater countercyclical adjustments in fiscal and monetary policies, reducing the reserve requirement ratio, and implementing significant interest rate cuts", indicating that the loose monetary policy is still the overall trend, and policy rates may remain low. Even if future fiscal stimulus measures are implemented, it will take time from policy implementation to effective results. Therefore, during the initial stages of policy implementation, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the bond market, and the period of market adjustment may present a good opportunity for moderate positioning. Can bond funds still be held? Although the returns of pure bond funds are lower than equity and mixed funds during a bull market, they offer relatively stable income and generally have lower risks, making them suitable for investors who prioritize long-term holding experiences. According to Wind data, in terms of long-term returns, both the ordinary pure bond fund index and the open-end pure bond fund index have recorded positive returns each year over the past 10 years, with average annualized returns of 3.53% and 4.66% respectively. In bond investments, fixed coupon income is one of the important sources of income. Due to the protection of coupon income, the bond market, although experiencing multiple bull and bear cycles in the past 10 years, has shown a trend of "bulls last longer than bears", and has been able to quickly recover from most downturns. Historical data shows that even in the face of major corrections, the maximum drawdown recovery time for the Wind Short-Term Pure Bond Fund Index did not exceed 85 days, and even the recent major correction at the end of 2022 was successfully recovered in just 13 days. Over the past 10 years, smaller bumps and corrections have had even shorter recovery times. Furthermore, from the perspective of asset allocation of major asset classes, bond assets have weak correlations with other assets, so by allocating pure bond funds, portfolio risk can be diversified. In markets with large fluctuations and divergences, for investors with relatively high risk appetite, pure bond funds can also play a stabilizing role in portfolio allocation. However, this role requires investors to experience it with "time" and "patience". In conclusion, pure bond funds play an important role in asset allocation, providing stability in turbulent markets and aiming for asset appreciation in long-term investments, demonstrating their indispensable value.
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