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Ministry of Finance policies are here! Nomura's interpretation: Can we expect a "slow bull" market for the future Chinese stock market?
Nomura expressed that the press conference held by the Ministry of Finance demonstrated the government's sincerity in economic management, but its functions are relatively limited, and many key decisions require approval from the National People's Congress or its Standing Committee. This policy release conference basically meets market expectations, without significantly exceeding or falling below expectations. The future stock market may experience a period of volatility, but still has the potential for an upward trend.
Recently, the Ministry of Finance, on the basis of accelerating the implementation of established policies, will launch a series of targeted incremental policy measures around stabilizing growth, expanding domestic demand, and managing risks in the near future. Nomura expressed that the Ministry of Finance's press conference demonstrated the government's sincerity in economic management, but its functions are relatively limited, and many key decisions require approval from the National People's Congress or its standing committee. The policy press conference this time basically met market expectations, without significantly exceeding or falling below expectations. The stock market may experience a period of volatility in the future, but there is still potential for an upward trend. Nomura pointed out several key points to pay attention to in this press conference. First, the issue of local government debt restructuring. The scale of this debt restructuring is expected to surpass historical records, possibly involving trillions of yuan, including the 5 trillion yuan written off during the pandemic. Secondly, issuing special government bonds to supplement bank capital. This is related to local government debt restructuring and the "housing for exchange" plan. The third highlight is the clear statement that China still has fiscal space. In addition, long-term government bonds will be issued and special bonds will be increased to support infrastructure and transfer payments, with this expenditure expected to increase by three to four trillion yuan annually. Local government debt restructuring mainly involves converting implicit liabilities into explicit liabilities, thereby reducing interest costs and reducing default risks. Currently, China's local government's implicit liabilities are around 50 trillion yuan, with explicit liabilities of 40 trillion yuan, totaling 90 trillion yuan. The scale of this partial resolution of implicit liabilities is expected to reach trillions of yuan, including the additional 5 trillion yuan during the pandemic. This resolution is not simply economic stimulus, but a change in the nature of high-interest loans of local governments, making them similar to government bonds and thereby reducing interest costs. In conclusion, the policy press conference this time basically met market expectations, without significantly exceeding or falling below expectations. One should be vigilant as different market participants may have different interpretations of the policy due to different holdings. Therefore, it is important to consider various opinions and view this press conference and its impact from an objective perspective. Nomura predicts that in the coming years, China's fiscal policy will continue to be proactive and support economic growth through various means. On one hand, special government bonds will continue to be issued to supplement bank capital, and infrastructure and transfer payments will be supported through long-term government bonds and special bonds. On the other hand, an additional three to four trillion yuan in expenditure is expected every year to stabilize economic growth. Additionally, the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress will hold meetings every two months to adjust budgets, determine the amount of new government bonds, and other key issues based on the actual situation. Therefore, new fiscal policies will be introduced approximately every two months to provide guidance to the market. It is important to avoid overly optimistic or pessimistic interpretations of these data, as the actual effects depend on specific implementation and macroeconomic changes. Nomura predicts that the stock market may experience a period of volatility in the future, but still has potential for an upward trend. The key is whether the overheated speculative atmosphere can be cooled down and economic issues can be prioritized. If this can be achieved, the Chinese stock market may usher in a "slow bull" market. As for how investors should deal with the current volatile market, Nomura points out that first of all, it should be emphasized that individuals are not stock strategy researchers and therefore cannot provide specific operational recommendations. However, there are several points to note: first, the current market is volatile; second, it is important to closely monitor whether central government policies can effectively address current economic issues. In particular, whether the real estate market can stabilize, and the progress of fiscal system reforms. In the current economic environment, general investors should be especially cautious. Although the government is committed to stabilizing the economy, stock market, and real estate market through policy coordination, investors should still follow the pace of the national team and seek a certain level of safety when choosing riskier stock assets. Specifically, investors can choose blue-chip stocks with high dividend returns or stable growth prospects to reduce the risk of market fluctuations. In addition, regarding the Chinese real estate market, Nomura noted that the property market has recently experienced a boom, especially in first-tier and some second-tier cities. However, there is significant uncertainty as to whether this situation can continue. When policies are withdrawn, the market may face adjustment pressures. Both the stock market and the real estate market experience cyclical fluctuations. In the years following 2015, the prices of real estate in small and medium-sized cities skyrocketed through special policies such as monetizing shantytown renovations. Nomura believes that it is unlikely to adopt large-scale stimulus measures like building large amounts of highways, express railways, or houses in small and medium-sized cities in the future. These historical stages have passed, so the real estate market is unlikely to experience similar large-scale bubbles in the future.
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