Baillie Gifford Investment: Discussion of different potential outcomes of the US election and allocation advice.

2024-10-23 21:25

Zhitongcaijing
In the long run, whether it is He Jinli or Trump who wins, it is expected that the US budget deficit will increase, leading to inflation, which generally favors the rise of stock assets.
Baird Investment has released its latest commentary, stating that if He Jinli wins, existing policies may continue, even if there is a change in policy, the process will be relatively slow. It is favorable for emerging market assets to rise, especially in Mexico and China, but US assets may not necessarily benefit in the same way. If Trump wins, the market environment is expected to become volatile, with increased uncertainty. His aggressive tariff policies and immigration restrictions will have a negative impact on the economy, although relaxing regulations in other areas may offset some of the effects. In the long run, regardless of whether He Jinli or Trump wins, the US budget deficit is expected to rise, leading to an increase in inflation, which generally benefits stocks assets.
Jeremy Burton, portfolio manager of US high yield and leveraged loans investments, Kenneth Ruskin, Global Stock Research Director and Sustainable Investment Director, and Hani Redha, Global Diversified Asset Portfolio Manager at Baird Investment, have released their latest comments, discussing the potential impact of different outcomes of the "US election" on a wide range of core asset categories and the most favorable deployment of investors in this uncertain market condition.
The main insights are as follows:
In terms of market impacts, there are significant differences in policies between the two US presidential candidates on certain issues, but there are also similarities. The 5 major issues that may have the greatest impact on the market include differences in tax policies, antitrust policies (especially towards large tech companies), fiscal spending, trade policy towards China, and geopolitical differences with Ukraine.
If He Jinli wins, existing policies may continue, even if there is a change in policy, the process will be relatively slow. He Jinli's policy focus is still being observed, and is likely to involve raising taxes and increasing budget spending, which could stimulate the trend of non-US assets, favoring emerging market assets to rise, especially in Mexico and China, but US assets may not necessarily benefit in the same way.
If Trump wins, the market environment is expected to become volatile, with increased uncertainty. Although Trump's victory may be seen as short-term market positive, the situation may be different in the long run: his aggressive tariff policies and immigration restrictions will have a negative impact on the economy, although relaxing regulations in other areas may offset some of the effects.
In the long run (about the next 12 to 18 months), regardless of whether He Jinli or Trump wins, the US budget deficit is expected to rise, leading to an increase in inflation, which generally benefits stock assets, and investors should focus not on industries that benefit, but on the quality of individual companies and their ability to withstand inflation pressures.
In terms of bonds, their trend is relatively less affected by election results. In developed markets, industries and issuers that are more sensitive to regulatory policy changes (such as healthcare) may experience higher volatility. In terms of emerging market bonds, if Trump is elected, his tariff policy overall will be detrimental to China and emerging markets (especially Mexico), thus the potential risks are higher, but if He Jinli wins, emerging market bonds are very likely to maintain the status quo.
Regardless of the election results and regardless of how much short-term volatility occurs, it is believed that the fundamentals remain strong, and any market volatility presents opportunities for investors to increase their investments at more attractive price levels.