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Allianz Investment: Maintains a moderate optimistic attitude towards the Japanese yen and Japanese stocks.
In the current market environment, Allianz maintains a neutral view on Japanese government bonds. As for the Japanese yen, the bank has a moderately optimistic outlook.
In terms of Japanese stocks, Allianz Investment said that their view remains cautiously optimistic. This is because the structural drivers within Japan still exist and global economic growth is also satisfactory. However, due to ongoing political uncertainty, there may be some short-term volatility until the market regains confidence that there will not be any major shifts in overall policy direction. Although the firm remains cautiously optimistic about Japanese stocks, their confidence in other stock markets is stronger at the moment. Greg Hirt, Chief Investment Officer of Allianz Investment's Global Multi-Asset, stated that recent economic data confirmed the Bank of Japan's policy direction. While the conditions for further rate hikes still exist, the Bank of Japan's statements show that there is no urgent need to adjust rates at the October meeting. According to the firm, there are two main reasons for this. First, Greg Hirt mentioned that the Bank of Japan wants to confirm the economic trends in the United States and Japan. With the start of the second half of the fiscal year for Japanese companies, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in October will provide important information about pricing behavior. Additionally, there will be more specific information released on the wage bargaining goals for next spring. Japan's largest labor union organization, Rengo, announced plans to seek at least a 5% wage increase in next year's wage negotiations. Meanwhile, stable economic data in the United States could further support the Japanese economy. Secondly, he pointed out that political uncertainty remains high. The ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito lost their majority in the lower house elections, making it more complex to form the next government as they need to form alliances with other parties to continue ruling. Furthermore, the upcoming US elections next week bring uncertainty to policy direction and market reactions. Given these risks, the Bank of Japan may choose to wait until December for a clearer outlook. Depending on election results, economic developments, and the performance of the yen, Allianz expects the next rate adjustment to take place in December or January. The recent depreciation of the yen may prompt the Bank of Japan to take action sooner to prevent a weak currency from reigniting inflationary risks. The economic outlook report in October may provide important insights and is expected to address the recent weakening of the yen. Yields have already been repriced in the market. While there is still room for further increase in yields during the rate hike cycle, the expected pace of increase is likely to slow down, and the distribution of risks becomes more even. Therefore, in the current market environment, Allianz maintains a neutral view on Japanese government bonds. As for the yen, the firm holds a cautiously optimistic attitude. Despite the recent negative turn in the yen's trend, Allianz remains optimistic about the long-term prospects of the yen due to its attractive valuation and narrowing yield differentials.
Schroder Investment: The interest rate reduction cycle in Europe and America has arrived, pay attention to the divergence of central bank monetary policies.
One-click redemption of bond funds is still playing out. The number of shares decreased by nearly 800 billion in the third quarter, while the scale of equity funds increased by nearly 1 trillion in a month.