Recently, due to the stock market heating up and bond market fluctuations, bond funds are facing certain redemption pressure. The total share of bond funds in the third quarter has already shrunk, and since October, more than ten bond funds have experienced large redemptions. Even though there has been some recent volatility in the bond market, many industry insiders believe that the overall risks in the bond market are still manageable, and the short-term fluctuations will not change its long-term allocation value. Bond funds are facing redemption pressure At the end of June, the total share of bond funds in China was 61,085.56 billion shares, with a total scale of 68,896.29 billion yuan. By the end of September, the total share of bond funds had decreased to 58,179.13 billion shares, with a total scale decreasing to 65,933.67 billion yuan. From these data, it can be seen that in the third quarter, the total share of bond funds decreased by 775.54 billion shares, a decrease of about 4.75%, and facing certain redemption pressure. In addition, there have been several bond funds experiencing large redemptions recently. On October 29, Baijia Fund issued a notice regarding the adjustment of the net asset value accuracy of Baijia Baichuan 30-day holding period pure bond fund shares. The fund experienced a large redemption on October 28, 2024. On October 22, Penghua Fund issued a notice regarding the increase in net asset value accuracy of Penghua Stable Profit Bond E Fund shares. The E class shares of Penghua Stable Profit Bond experienced a large redemption on October 21. These E class shares were just added on September 23 this year and do not charge subscription fees, but instead charge sales service fees, making them more suitable for short-term investors. There have also been redemptions in fixed-term bond funds recently. According to the announcement by Fulong Fund on October 19 regarding the increase in net asset value accuracy of Fulong Fuheng two-year fixed-time open-ended bond fund, the fund experienced a large redemption on October 18. This fund is a fixed-term bond fund, and the period between October 18 and November 14 is the second opening period for this fund. It can be seen that a large redemption occurred on the first day of the fund's open redemption period. Some industry insiders pointed out that if holders of fixed-term funds do not redeem during the open period, their shares will enter the next closed period and may continue to be locked for a long time. Therefore, it is common for this type of fund to experience large redemptions during the open period, especially considering the recent significant rebound in the stock market, with investors redeeming fixed-term bond funds to invest in the equity market being a normal phenomenon. In addition to this fund, Rongtong Tongyue one-year fixed-term open-end bond fund also experienced a large redemption on October 11. The open period for this fund is from 9:00 on September 30 to 15:00 on November 1, and the next closed period is from November 2, 2024, to November 1, 2025. In fact, several bond funds have experienced large redemptions since the stock market rebounded. On September 25, Tianzhi Xinxian Liabilities Bonds and Xinyuan Zhenshan Bonds experienced large redemptions. On September 26, Ping An Huiyun Pure Bond Bond experienced a large redemption. And since October, a total of 14 bond funds, including Hui'an Wenyu Bonds, Penghua Fengyin Bonds, and Changcheng Taili Pure Bonds, have experienced large redemptions. What are the reasons for the large redemptions? When discussing the reasons for the large redemptions of many bond funds recently, industry insiders point out that on the one hand, it is due to the recent rebound in the stock market, which has caused many bond fund holders to redeem their funds to invest in equity assets, and on the other hand, it is due to recent volatility in the bond market. First, the recent rebound in the stock market has changed the flow of funds, and many investors are opting to invest in equity assets to pursue higher returns. This can also be seen from the increase in the share of equity funds in September. According to data from the China Securities Investment Fund Industry Association, the total scale of equity funds increased from 32,931.82 billion yuan at the end of August to 42,703.6 billion yuan at the end of September, a significant increase of 9,771.78 billion yuan. Second, in the context of policy adjustments and changing market expectations, bond yields have been fluctuating, leading some investors to choose to redeem their bond funds out of risk aversion considerations. Specifically, what are the reasons for the recent volatility in the bond market? Qu Decheng, a fund manager at Fangzheng Fubon Fund, pointed out that the recent volatility in the bond market is mainly due to two factors. One is the change in market expectations for the macro economy, leading to a repricing of bonds by investors whose expectations have changed. Second, the sharp rise in the stock market has increased market risk sentiment, leading to the seesaw effect between stocks and bonds, which has also caused bond market volatility. The bond market still has allocation value Even though there has been recent volatility in the bond market, looking ahead, many industry insiders point out that the overall risks in the bond market are manageable, and short-term fluctuations do not change the medium- to long-term allocation value. Bond fund holders can continue to hold onto their investments for the medium to long term without rushing to redeem them. Qu Decheng, a fund manager at Fangzheng Fubon Fund, believes that the current bond market still has good value. Qu Decheng pointed out that from the perspective of the basic fundamentals of the domestic economy, there is still room for further interest rate cuts in the future, which will support the investment value of the bond market. He analyzed, "Predicting investment opportunities in the bond market requires analyzing the trend of the economic fundamentals. Currently, the domestic economy is still in a phase of imbalance between supply and demand. Although nominal interest rates are falling, the imbalance between supply and demand has also led to a decrease in inflation, which means that real interest rates in our country are still too high. In the future, if inflation and economic growth expectations do not reverse, there is still room for further interest rate cuts. However, this decline may not be as drastic as before. For example, we have experienced rapid declines from 3% to 2% in the past, but in the future, we may only see a decline of 30 to 50 basis points." He also pointed out that from the perspective of global central bank policies, the global market environment provides us with more room for interest rate cuts, further supporting the investment value of the bond market. He said, "Currently, the Federal Reserve has started an interest rate cut cycle, and Europe is following suit, providing more operational space for our interest rate policy. Last year, when other countries were raising interest rates while we were cutting rates, our interest rate policy did face significant pressure. However, starting from the third quarter of this year, this pressure has gradually eased." Guoshou Anbao Fund believes that looking ahead, in the early stages of economic recovery, bond market participants will still have a certain inertia, and monetary policy is expected to remain supportive, so the risks in the bond market are manageable. Minsheng Jiayin Fund believes that short-term fluctuations orDoes not change the long-term allocation value in the bond market. In the short term, driven by policy expectations and market risk preferences, the bond market may face adjustments, considering participating in short-term trading trends. In the medium to long term, incremental policies such as debt conversion require loose monetary policy coordination, and the fundamental environment and asset shortage logic may still support the bond market.This article is reprinted from "CAIJIAN Society", edited by GMTEight: Xu Wenqiang.