DWS: The impact of the US election is not as significant as expected, but investors still need to be prepared.
2024-10-31 14:05
Zhitongcaijing
Bjrn Jesch believes that the market needs to be prepared for uncertainty in the upcoming November US election. Unlike expectations before the summer, the recent US stock market has reacted relatively calmly to a series of political events.
Bjrn Jesch, global chief investment officer of DWS, believes that the market should be prepared for the uncertainty of the November US election. Unlike expectations before the summer, the recent US stock market has reacted relatively calmly to a series of political events. The bank believes that this is in line with the fundamental forecast, that the impact of the US election on the market may not be as significant as widely expected. Bjrn Jesch pointed out that unless there is a major polling error leading to either party gaining a significantly larger majority in Congress than expected, the potential for policy changes affecting investors may be quite limited. However, investors should still be prepared for a potential gridlock in Washington, with policy changes likely to be limited to minor adjustments on the periphery.
The report suggests that as long as the two parties are evenly matched in the House of Representatives and the Senate, there will not be much legislative change regardless of whether Biden or Trump is elected. However, certain industries will undoubtedly benefit from the elimination of election uncertainty. For example, both candidates have promised to increase investment in technology and promote innovation, and healthcare stocks may rise unless the Democratic Party wins by a large margin, leading to improved market sentiment. Events and realities faced by the new government in its early days often have a greater impact on governance than election promises.
Nevertheless, the probability of unexpected events on election day seems to be very high.