Schroder Investment: By 2024, many companies globally have outperformed most of the "Big Seven".
2024-10-31 15:26
Zhitongcaijing
Although technology stocks dominated returns in 2023, the investment market has now significantly expanded, and investors may be missing out on other overlooked opportunities.
Duncan Lamont, head of global investment strategy research at Schroders, pointed out that by 2024, the performance of many global companies has surpassed most of the "Big Seven." This is not only due to the recent recovery in China, but also a similar situation in the United States. Although technology stocks dominated returns in 2023, the investment market has now significantly expanded and investors may be missing out on other overlooked opportunities.
Lamont does not believe that many of the companies in the "Big Seven" have underperformed. In fact, some of these companies have consistently delivered substantial returns to investors over the years, despite their growing size. He wants to emphasize that the view of them as the only high-quality investment is too short-sighted.
He points out that returns outside the "Big Seven" were relatively average in 2023, but 2024 is filled with abundant and often overlooked investment opportunities. This trend is not limited to stock price fluctuations. Looking ahead for the next 12 months, nearly half of the listed companies in Europe and Japan are expected to achieve double-digit earnings per share (EPS) growth in their local currencies, on par with the highly regarded US listed companies. The UK is not far behind. Emerging market data is even higher (over 60% of companies are expected to achieve double-digit growth), but this is because these are nominal figures and many emerging markets have higher inflation rates.
For stock investors, the problem is that while market performance is expanding, their portfolios are not. The market capitalization of the top six companies in the US (excluding Tesla) has exceeded the combined market capitalization of the second to seventh largest countries globally (Japan, UK, Canada, France, China, and Switzerland). Six stocks, six countries. Their 18.1% weight is equivalent to the total of 2000 of the smallest companies in the global market.
Such high concentration means that most of the risks are concentrated in a few stocks, making it almost impossible for investors to participate in broader market opportunities. And these overlooked companies appear more attractive in terms of valuation, whether in the US or the global market. Equal-weighted indices (unlike market capitalization-weighted indices) further highlight this valuation advantage. Small stocks are still undervalued compared to historical levels.
The expansion of market performance beyond the "Big Seven" is not surprising. Very few companies can consistently rank in the top 10 or even the top 100 for several years. Overpriced stocks often reflect overly optimistic expectations for company growth, while other companies are overlooked by the market, with depressed stock prices and overly pessimistic prospects. This phenomenon may continue for a while until more investors get caught up in speculative cycles and the market ultimately returns to rationality. Companies that were previously overlooked may surpass past winners and gradually fall in performance rankings.
Historically, periods of high index concentration (a few companies dominating the market) often indicate that these large companies will perform below average in the future. The equal-weighted version of the stock market has outperformed the market capitalization-weighted version. Despite the opportunities, portfolios are shrinking their allocations to these large companies.
Duncan Lamont cautions investors to be wary of simply comparing valuation indicators from one region to another. Differences in accounting standards and the composition of stock markets in different regions mean that valuation levels in some markets are often higher than others.
For example, because technology stocks have relatively high growth potential, their valuations are typically high. Therefore, markets like the US, which have a large number of technology stocks, often have higher valuations than regions like Europe.
When evaluating cross-market values, it is necessary to establish a reasonable benchmark to overcome the impact of these differences. One method is to evaluate each market relative to its historical valuation levels.
Finally, investors should always remember that past market performance and historical market trends cannot reliably predict the future. Your capital always faces risks, which is inherent in any investment.