Large-scale increase in holdings! QFII and social security funds' latest holdings exposed!
2024-11-01 06:58
Zhitongcaijing
According to Wind data, a total of 88 stocks received institutional funds increasing their holdings by over one billion shares in the third quarter. Among them, institutional funds significantly increased their positions in China Energy Engineering Group and Ping An Insurance, with both seeing an increase of over one hundred billion shares. Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank, China Railway Special Cargo, State Power International, Yanzhou Coal Mining, Shanxi Expressway, and others also received significant institutional holdings increases.
With the completion of the third quarter report disclosure, information on institutions' holdings, changes, and other details in the third quarter gradually came to light. Due to their large scale, institutions mainly focus on medium to long-term positioning when adjusting their portfolios, which can reflect their judgment on the market direction. Especially after a series of major positive policies were released following the "924" new policy, the activity in the capital market quickly increased, and institutional movements have become a focus of market attention.
Many stocks received significant increases in holdings by institutions
Currently, domestic institutions can be roughly divided into QFII, social security funds, insurance companies, securities firms, corporate pensions, trust companies, and private equity funds, among others. According to Wind data, a total of 88 stocks received institutional fund increases of over one billion shares in the third quarter. Among them, institutions significantly increased their holdings in China Energy Engineering and China Ping An by over one hundred billion shares. Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank, China Railway Special Cargo, Huaan International, Yankuang Energy, Shanxi Expressway, and others also received significant increases in institutional holdings.
In the third quarter of this year, a total of 12 stocks saw institutional reductions of over one billion shares, with Agricultural Bank of China, Beijing-Shanghai High-speed Railway, and Everbright Bank being reduced by over 20 billion shares. Minsheng Bank, BOE, Longteng Optoelectronics, China Telecom, and Huaxia Bank were also significantly reduced by institutions.
QFII and social security fund adjustment routes exposed
It is worth noting that the third quarter holdings trends of long-term funds such as QFII and social security funds have always been closely watched by market investors. QFII represents overseas long-term funds, while social security funds represent one of the patient capital sources in the country, with a clear style of long-term holding and value investment.
According to Wind data, as of the end of the third quarter, QFII appeared in the top ten circulating shareholders of 760 listed companies, with 87 stocks having QFII holdings exceeding one billion. The largest holding value was in Ningbo Bank, reaching 32.021 billion yuan, followed by Nanjing Bank with a holding value of 18.639 billion yuan. Shengyi Technology, Shanghai Bank, Xi'an Bank, Zijin Mining, Hengli Hydraulic, and 8 other stocks all had QFII holdings exceeding 1 billion.
In terms of changes in holdings, Wind data shows that out of the 760 listed companies, 225 companies received increases in holdings, accounting for 29.61%. A total of 8 stocks saw QFII holdings increase by over 10 million shares in the third quarter. Huace Testing saw the largest increase of 26.9492 million shares by QFII in the third quarter. Shengyi Technology, Lang Yuan shares, Guozhong water, Shouchuang Environmental Protection, Tiandi Technology, Dalian Thermal Power, and Leman Optoelectronics all saw significant increases in QFII holdings in the third quarter.
Overall, the key focus of QFII's third-quarter buying was in the directions of electronic information, public utilities, large consumption, diversified finance, and pharmaceuticals.
As for social security funds, according to Wind data, by the end of the third quarter, social security funds appeared in the top ten circulating shareholders of 563 listed companies, with 377 stocks having social security fund holdings exceeding one billion, accounting for 66.96%.
Social security fund heavy-weight stocks are mainly concentrated in the large financial industry such as banks and insurance companies. Agricultural Bank of China, ICBC, China Life Insurance, and Bank of Communications are the top four holdings of social security funds, with holding values of 112.901 billion yuan, 76.210 billion yuan, 41.706 billion yuan, and 22.978 billion yuan respectively.
In terms of changes in holdings, according to Wind data, out of the 563 listed companies, 174 companies received increases in holdings from social security funds, accounting for 30.91%. A total of 23 stocks saw social security fund holdings increase by over 10 million shares. Guanghui Energy saw the largest increase of 44.2851 million shares by social security funds in the third quarter, followed by Guangxi Energy and Xinji Energy, which saw increases of 37.8672 million shares and 34.1176 million shares, respectively. Weixing shares, Shenhuo shares, Shantu shares, Xingyuan materials, and Focus Media all saw significant increases in holdings by social security funds.
Overall, energy and public utilities were the key focus of social security fund buying in the third quarter, with consumer goods, manufacturing, and other industries also attracting the attention of social security funds.
Institutions: Waiting for the "rebound" market to open
Looking ahead, Guotai Junan Securities indicates that significant "loose monetary policy + wide fiscal policy" actions are taking place on the liability side of residents, enterprises, and local governments. By filling the liability gap, reducing debt pressure, and improving the balance sheets of relevant departments, preparations are being made for future actions to boost consumption, investment, and activate the domestic economy - which means that "risk control" is the top priority in the current first phase, which will help establish a "market bottom". Additionally, it is expected that macro, meso, and micro-level data in China will see marginal improvements in the coming quarter, leading to a positive outlook for the current "rebound" market trend.
In terms of industry allocation in November, the institution's research focuses on the technology sector. Behind the rebound is the restoration of credit expectations and valuation expansion. Industry and stock selections should pay attention to: "denominator elasticity," focusing on mid-sized companies + oversold + undervalued + buybacks + M&A expectations, with weaker constraints on the numerator side (ROE repair or cash flow improvement) in "growth > consumption," where: 1. First, focus on growth: TMT, especially electronics and computers; 2, national defense and military industries; 3, pharmaceuticals, and biotechnology. 2. Second, consumer sector: 1. Liquor; 2, social services; 3, light industry; 4, medical aesthetics. Structurally, emphasis is placed on "technology bull," especially on technology-related equipment, which needs special attention as one of the investment directions of fiscal policy, with many thematic catalysts, and benefiting from the Jugular cycle.
Guangda Securities believes that historically, after a rapid rise in the market, the market usually turns into a shake-up. With various positive policy signals, the overall market index still has opportunities for growth, but investment opportunities may gradually shift from beta to alpha, and the choice of investment structure in the future may be more critical.
In terms of allocation direction, the institution suggests focusing on policy-related industries and the mainline of increasing risk appetite. In the future, the implementation of policies may be a crucial mainline for market transactions, so it is recommended to focus on assets related to real estate construction, such as liquor, real estate, and building materials, which are expected to benefit from policy implementation, as well as directions related to mergers and acquisitions. In addition, the recovery of market risk appetite will help in the valuation recovery of growth sectors, such as specific stocks in military industry, TMT, and new energy sectors.
This article is reprinted from the WeChat public account "Wind Wan De," GMTEight editor: Xu Wenqiang.