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Sino-Canadian Fund: The central bank has set up a buy-back reverse repurchase tool, and interbank deposit rates have fallen slightly.
Overall, in the early stages of loose monetary and fiscal policies, the macro environment is not bad for the bond market, but attention should be paid to whether the loose funds can be sustained in the short term.
The China-Canada Fund published an article stating that bond investors are still focusing on three major issues: liquidity, fiscal policy, and stability of the non-banking debt side. High-frequency data shows that the fundamentals are still in the early stages of stabilization, and the upward resilience needs to be observed, so the market has not yet provided much pricing. The operation and injection of the central bank's repurchase agreement tools have stabilized market expectations for liquidity, with ample liquidity across months, and interbank certificate deposit rates have finally loosened, boosting sentiment in bond trading. However, concerns about the strength of fiscal stimulus and the behavior of non-bank institutions still exist, which are partly constraining the performance of long-term bonds and credit bonds. The meeting of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress held this week is an important window for tracking the strength of fiscal policy. Overall, the macro environment is not bad for the bond market in the early stages of loose monetary and fiscal policies. In the short term, attention should be paid to whether the loose funds can be maintained. In terms of convertible bonds market, the conditions for a complete turnaround of the bond market have not yet been met, and the market expectations for bond funds are gradually stabilizing, with the bond bottom value continuously repaired. In terms of equity flexibility, attention should be paid to the meetings, policy implementation, and the results of the U.S. election, and in the short term, the market hotspots may be driven by thematic concepts. The China-Canada Fund stated that last week, the issuance sizes of primary market government bonds, local government bonds, and policy financial bonds were 0 billion, 250.6 billion, and 115 billion respectively, with net financing amounts of -30 billion, 168.5 billion, and 112 billion. The total issuance size of financial bonds (excluding policy financial bonds) was 761 billion, with a net financing amount of 544 billion. The total issuance size of non-financial credit bonds was 224 billion, with a net financing amount of 7 billion. One new convertible bond was issued last week, with a total financing size of about 1.4 billion yuan. Last week, the yield curve overall steepened, and interest rate and quasi interest rate products continued to outperform credit bonds. The main influencing factors include: central bank operations, liquidity, fiscal policy expectations, and the stock-bond seesaw. The China-Canada Fund mentioned that the central bank created repurchase agreements and operated 500 billion at the end of the month, with a net purchase of 200 billion in October government bonds, resulting in ample liquidity across months and a decline in interbank certificate deposit rates. In overseas markets, the U.S. non-farm employment and ISM manufacturing PMI for October were lower than expected, but the CPI for September was higher than expected, and Q3 GDP showed strong domestic demand. Ultimately, the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond closed at 4.37%, up 12 basis points from the previous week.
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