Allianz: If Trump's victory is quickly confirmed, expected stock market volatility will decrease.
2024-11-06 19:52
Zhitongcaijing
The market expects that Trump will take a tough stance on multiple issues such as trade and immigration, which could drive the strength of the US dollar and gold.
Greg Hirt, Chief Investment Officer of Allianz Global Investors for Global Diversified Assets, Michael Krautzberger, Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income, and Virginie Maisonneuve, Global Equity Investment Director, have just written a commentary on the US election. The bank expects that Trump will take a tough stance on issues such as trade and immigration, which may strengthen the US dollar and gold. The impact on the bond market is difficult to predict, while the stock market may experience volatility before the election results are finalized. If Trump's victory is quickly confirmed, Allianz can expect a decrease in volatility as uncertainty is eliminated.
Allianz Investments stated that Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump's policy focus will be on lowering corporate taxes and further easing regulations, which will benefit US businesses, especially smaller companies with attractive valuations, and to some extent, certain technology companies that are loyal to Trump. The bank stated that although the Republicans likely already have won the Senate, if they gain a majority of seats in Congress elections, this will help Trump push through tax cuts and increased spending policies. However, the market may be concerned that these fiscal policies lack sufficient funding support, leading to instability in the credit market.
Allianz stated that Trump's foreign policy will bring greater geopolitical risks compared to a Harris victory, as his geopolitical strategy is unpredictable for both allies and enemies. It is expected that he will increase trade tariffs on China and some European countries.