Pu Lai Shi: The announcement of the results of the U.S. presidential election or the clarification of policies will help boost investors' risk appetite.
2024-11-07 10:18
Zhitongcaijing
The announcement of the results of the US presidential election is expected to alleviate a major uncertainty factor affecting the market and economy, and may help boost investor risk appetite.
Republican candidate Trump won the U.S. presidential election. According to Prudential's investment experts, if Trump is elected president, he is expected to continue several policy priorities from his first term. The potential revenue generated by the U.S. government through tariffs is likely to be discussed in the budget. At the same time, major tax cuts implemented by Trump in his first term are set to expire, and the biggest issue will be how Trump and Congress will address this. Tim Murray, Capital Market Strategist at the Diversified Assets Department, believes that the outcome of the U.S. presidential election is likely to remove a major uncertainty factor affecting the market and economy, potentially boosting investor risk appetite.
Washington Deputy Stock Analyst Gil Fortgang states that extending the individual marginal income tax rate cut and corporate tax incentives under the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act can prevent one of the largest nominal tax increases in U.S. history. However, this will increase additional deficit spending by $4 to $5 trillion over the next ten years. The president may face pressure to fund the continuation of the 2017 tax cuts and any new tax cut measures, potentially bringing policy risks to certain industries and sectors.
The potential revenue generated by the U.S. government through tariffs is likely to be discussed in the budget. Trump has repeatedly proposed a 10% border tax on all foreign goods entering the U.S., as well as up to 60% tariffs on goods imported from China. Regardless of specific numbers, these statements suggest that Trump may take a radical stance on trade policy, with potential impacts beyond China.
Chief U.S. Economist Blerina Uruci points out that raising existing tariffs and/or imposing additional tariffs on imports may cause a one-time price shock in terms of inflation. The extent of the impact will depend on the ability of businesses to pass on these costs to consumers, which is difficult to predict.
Another area to watch is the new president's stance on tightening immigration policies. Taking a hardline position in this area could have negative impacts on labor supply, making the U.S. labor market tighter. Unlike tariff increases, this situation may have more long-lasting impacts on prices.
In terms of the stock market, U.S. small-cap stocks may benefit from Trump's election victory, especially if his administration relaxes regulations and takes a more lenient stance on mergers and acquisitions. Small businesses have been cautious before the election, but policy clarity might prompt them to rebuild inventory and increase business spending. Further cuts in corporate taxes and a more accommodative monetary policy by the Federal Reserve could also be positive factors.
The potential impact of Trump's trade and immigration policies on inflation is worth close attention for investors in the medium term. Higher inflation expectations could further push up bond yields and affect stock valuations measured by companies' future cash flows. Trade tensions may also lead to volatility in affected industries and markets.
The outlook for the U.S. dollar is uncertain. While Trump has openly expressed a desire for a weaker dollar, some of his policies (such as tariffs) may lead to a stronger dollar. However, other factors will also come into play, including the Fed's inclination towards easing policy, and the relative performance of the U.S. economy compared to other global economies.