Barclays: The Fed slowing down its interest rate cuts may put greater pressure on Asian currencies.
2024-11-12 19:17
Zhitongcaijing
The Fed's slowing pace of interest rate cuts may put greater pressure on Asian currencies, especially for Asian central banks that rely on guidance from the Federal Reserve.
Barclays Bank strategist Zhang Meng pointed out that the Fed's 25 basis point rate cut in November is in line with market expectations, but the uncertainty about whether the Fed will continue to cut rates in December has increased. The slowing pace of rate cuts by the Fed may put greater pressure on Asian currencies, especially for central banks of Asian countries that rely on Fed policy guidance. Despite the Fed's rate cuts, Asian currencies still face depreciation pressure due to the strong US dollar. These central banks may have to delay their rate cut plans, leading them to potentially need to implement larger rate cuts in the future to address economic conditions.
Barclays Bank's expectation remains consistent with before, that if Trump wins the election, China will unveil larger stimulus measures to counter potential negative effects. These larger stimulus measures may be announced at the National People's Congress in March next year. However, unlike when Trump was last elected, the market is now more familiar with his governing style. In terms of the economic structure of China and the US, the current inflation level in the US is higher than before, while China's industrial structure has stronger capacity. Therefore, it is expected that the market will be more prepared for the measures taken by Trump after his re-election.
After the US election, the Indian rupee performed worse than expected for two reasons: some stock market funds have flowed out since September, and investors tended to adopt low-risk investment strategies on the eve of the US election. The yen is more affected by Trump's policies: since October, investors have begun carry trades; on the other hand, the results of the Japanese election were not as expected, weakening expectations of hawkish policies and thus weakening support for the yen.
Recently, Barclays US macroeconomic research team raised their forecast for US inflation levels for 2025 to 26, while lowering their GDP growth forecast. In addition, it is expected that the Fed will only cut rates twice in 2025, in March and June. After the dust settles following the US election, investors have taken a wait-and-see attitude which caused the US dollar to weaken, but with the Fed's rate cut pace slowing down, it is expected that the long-term decline in the US dollar index will also slow down.
December is a peak time for Chinese companies to settle their foreign exchange, so the US dollar generally experiences seasonal depreciation. However, after Trump took office, with rising risk aversion, investors may choose to hoard US dollars, increasing demand for the US dollar in December, which may lead to a decrease in the exchange volume of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan compared to before. Additionally, with some companies possibly settling their exchange in September in advance, there is some support for the yuan, although limited. In the medium to long term, the stimulus measures announced on November 8th are expected to support the fundamental of the Chinese yuan. However, actions taken by Trump after taking office on tariffs and other aspects may push up the US dollar, leading to a slow weakening of the Chinese yuan.