Morgan Asset Management: The average annual expected return rate of Chinese stocks in the next 10-15 years is 7.8%, with a recommendation to hold.
2024-11-12 19:17
Zhitongcaijing
Morgan Stanley's Chief Market Strategist for Asia-Pacific, Jonathan Garner, stated that the bank forecasts an average annual return of 7.8% for Chinese stocks over the next 10-15 years (measured in US dollars).
Morgan Asset Management's chief market strategist for Asia-Pacific, Xu Changtai, said that the bank's average annual expected return on Chinese stocks for the next 10-15 years is 7.8% (in US dollars). Even though Chinese stocks experienced a significant rebound in September 2024, the market still provides attractive valuation opportunities, so the bank's view on Chinese stocks is to increase holdings. He mentioned that corporate profit margins will improve, but there is uncertainty regarding the sustainability of profit growth and returns, with active management being the key to achieving excess returns. Even if Trump returns to the White House and imposes tariffs on Chinese goods, leading to a significant decrease in exports, the central government can still support economic growth through fiscal policy.
Morgan Asset Management released the "2025 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions" today. The 29th edition of the report forecasts a 6.4% annual return rate for a 60/40 US stock-bond investment portfolio over the next 10-15 years, slightly lower than last year but still higher than the long-term average. The report also suggests that investors have other opportunities to improve potential returns, especially through active management and incorporating alternative assets into portfolios. With strong capital investment, advances in artificial intelligence and automation, and the push for fiscal activism, the outlook for long-term economic growth has improved.
Sheng Nan, a global multi-asset strategist at Morgan Asset Management, stated that the bank's long-term capital market assumptions provide investors with a roadmap to navigate complex market conditions. This year's report emphasizes that active management and alternative assets are expected to help achieve better returns and diversification. In the Asia-Pacific region, the bank notes that both public and private markets offer unique investment opportunities, especially in Japanese stocks, which have been among the best performers in the global stock market with profit margins and equity returns nearing historical highs. With the ongoing development of corporate governance reforms and the continuous increase in shareholder returns, the bank expects the strong performance of Japanese stocks to continue and remains optimistic about their prospects.
Liang Yiqin, head of managed investment solutions for Morgan Private Bank in Asia, emphasized the importance of building goal-oriented investment portfolios that can withstand market fluctuations and seize growth opportunities. As infrastructure and other tangible asset sectors present significant opportunities, investors are expected to gain stable income by investing in these industries and hedge against inflation in high interest rate environments. In an environment of increased fiscal spending and accelerated technological adoption, active management of investment portfolios and risk management methods are crucial in helping to cope with complex and rapidly changing market conditions.
Regarding speculation that the development of cryptocurrencies will benefit from Trump's presidency, leading to the recent rapid rise in Bitcoin prices, Xu Changtai stated that the fundamental factors driving the recent price increase of cryptocurrencies have not changed. Therefore, this will cause significant fluctuations in cryptocurrency prices, so he personally believes that even if investors want to invest in these assets, they should be cautious and allocate a relatively small proportion in their overall investment portfolio.