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Ba Ling Fang Weichang: The market is full of uncertainties, the timing for Hong Kong stocks to enter the market has not arrived.
Fang Weichang suggested that we wait for the situation in the United States to become clearer before making any decisions, as the timing to enter the market has not yet arrived.
Fang Weichang, the chief investment officer of Balin Port A share, said that due to the fact that there is still some time before Trump takes office and announces tariff measures, the market is full of uncertainty, leading to funds flowing to the United States and causing adjustments in the Hong Kong stock market. However, he believes that this is only a short-term trend. He advised waiting for the factors in the United States to become clearer before making any deployment, as the timing to enter the market has not yet arrived. Fang Weichang pointed out that looking back at when Trump proposed tariffs during his first term, the market fell the deepest at that time. However, as the measures were implemented, the stock market also rebounded. He expects a similar situation this time. Moreover, if Trump ultimately imposes tariffs on each country, the costs will ultimately be passed on to the selling price, reducing the impact on Chinese exporters. Additionally, if the U.S. economy continues to perform well, Chinese exports will benefit and offset some of the impact of the tariffs. Therefore, he believes that the impact will not be overwhelmingly negative, and investors do not need to worry excessively. He stated that from the level of activity in Hong Kong A share IPOs, real estate and stock market transactions, and the performance of small and medium enterprises, all point to the recovery of the Chinese economy. If the performance of Chinese stocks continues to improve, and the domestic real estate market stabilizes, the Hong Kong stock market will slowly rise. It is not difficult for the Hong Kong stock market to surpass 20,000 points. He believes that the market will focus on the Central Economic Work Conference in December, indicating that more measures to support consumption and real estate are expected to be introduced, with the possibility of expanding the fiscal deficit. Although the Hong Kong stock market has already adjusted, the timing to enter the market has not yet arrived, and it is prudent to wait for the factors in the United States to become clearer before deploying. He mentioned that their fund recently reduced holdings of export stocks and increased holdings of domestic demand stocks. However, as the impact of tariffs gradually dissipates, it is not ruled out that they may increase holdings of export stocks next year under certain circumstances.
Kaige: There is a chance for the semiconductor cycle to reach its peak in 2025.
Schroder: China actively promotes economic growth combined with the prospect of mild interest rate cuts in the United States, pushing the investment outlook in Asia in a positive direction.